I think you'll be waiting a while for the "crashing down". I was a kid when manufacturing went off shore and mass production went into overdrive. I remember my parents complaining about how low quality a lot of mass produced things were. Yet for decades most of what we buy is mass produced, comparatively low quality goods. We got used to it, the benefits outweighed the negatives. What we thought mattered didn't in the face of a lot of previously unaffordable goods now broadly available and affordable.

You can still buy high goods made with care when it matters to you, but that's the exception. It will be the same with software. A lot of what we use will be mass produced with AI, and even produced in realtime on the fly (in 5 years maybe?). There will be some things where we'll pay a premium for software crafted with care, but for most it won't matter because of the benefits of rapidly produced software.

We've got a glimpse of this with things like Claude Artifacts. I now have a piece of software quite unique to my needs that simply wouldn't have existed otherwise. I don't care that it's one big js file. It works and it's what I need and I got it pretty much for free. The capability of things like Artifacts will continue to grow and we'll care less and less that it wasn't human produced with care.

While a general "crashing down" probably will not happen I could imagine some differences to other mass produced goods.

Most of our private data lives in clouds now and there are already regular security nightmares of stolen passwords, photos etc. I fear that these incidents will accumulate with more and more AI generated code that is most likely not reviewed or reviewed by another AI.

Also regardless of AI I am more and more skipping cheap products in general and instead buying higher quality things. This way I buy less but what I buy doesn't (hopefully) break after a few years (or months) of use.

I see the same for software. Already before AI we were flooded with trash. I bet we could all delete at least half of the apps on our phones and nothing would be worse than before.

I am not convinced by the rosy future of instant AI-generated software but future will reveal what is to come.

I think one major lesson of the history of the internet is that very few people actually care about privacy in a holistic, structural way. People do not want their nudes, browsing history and STD results to be seen by their boss, but that desire for privacy does not translate to guarding their information from Google, their boss, or the government. And frankly this is actually quite rational overall, because Google is in fact very unlikely to leak this information to your boss, and if they did it would more likely to result in a legal payday rather than any direct social cost.

Hacker news obviously suffers from severe selection bias in this regard, but for the general public I doubt even repeated security breaches of vibe coded apps will move the needle much on the perception of LLM coded apps, which means that they will still sell, which means that it doesn't matter. I doubt even most people will pick up the connection. And frankly, most security breaches have no major consequences anyway, in the grand scheme of things. Perhaps the public conscioussness will harden a bit when it comes to uploading nudes to "CheckYourBodyFat", but the truly disastrous stuff like bank access is mostly behind 2FA layers already.

Poor quality is not synonymous with mass production. It's just cheap crap made with little care.

> The era of software mass production has begun.

We've been in that era for at least two decades now. We just only now invented the steam engine.

> I wonder how long it takes until this comes all crashing down.

At least one such artifact of craft and beauty already literally crashed two airplanes. Bad engineering is possible with and without LLMs.

There's a buge difference between possible and likely.

Maybe I'm pessimistic but I at least feel like there's a world of difference between a practice that encourages bugs and one that allows them through when there is negligence. The accountability problem needs to be addressed before we say it's like self driving cars outperforming humans. On a errors per line basis, I don't think LLMs are on par with humans yet

Knowing your system components’ various error rates and compensating for them has always been the job. This includes both the software itself and the engineers working on it.

The only difference is that there is now a new high-throughput, high-error (at least for now) component editing the software.

what is (and I'm being generous with the base here) 0.95^10? A 10-step process with a 95% success rate on each.

Yeah it’s interesting to see if blaming LLMs becomes as acceptable as “caused by a technical fault” to deflect responsibility from what is a programmer’s output.

Perhaps that’s what lead to a decline in accountability and quality.

The decline in accountability has been in progress for decades, so LLMs can obviously not have caused it.

They might of course accelerate it if used unwisely, but the solution to that is arguably to use them wisely, not to completely shun them because "think of the craft and the jobs".

And yes, in some contexts, using them wisely might well mean not using them at all. I'd just be surprised if that were a reasonable default position in many domains in 5-10 years.

> Bad engineering is possible with and without LLMs

That's obvious. It's a matter of which makes it more likely

> Bad engineering is possible with and without LLMs.

Is Good Engineering possible with LLMs? I remain skeptical.

Why didn't programmers think of stepping down from their ivory towers and start making small apps which solve small problems? That people and businesses are very happy to pay for?

But no! Programmers seem to only like working on giant scale projects, which only are of interest to huge enterprises, governments, or the open source quagmire of virtualization within virtualization within virtualization.

There's exactly one good invoicing app I've found which is good for freelancers and small businesses. While the amount of potential customers are in the tens of millions. Why aren't there at least 10 good competitors?

My impression is that programmers consider it to be below their dignity to work on simple software which solves real problems and are great for their niche. Instead it has to be big and complicated, enterprise-scale. And if they can't get a job doing that, they will pretend to have a job doing that by spending their time making open source software for enterprise-scale problems.

Instead of earning a very good living by making boutique software for paying users.

I don't think programmers are the issue here. What you describe sounds to me more like the typical product management in a company. Stuff features into the thing until it bursts of bugs and is barely maintainable.

I would love to do something like what you describe. Build a simple but solid and very specialized solution. However I am not sure there is demand or if I have the right ideas for what to do.

You mention invoicing and I think: there must be hundreds of apps for what you describe but maybe I am wrong. What is the one good app you mention? I am curious now :)

There's a whole bunch of apps for invoicing, but if you try them, you'll see that they are excessively complicated. Probably because they want to cover all bases of all use cases. Meaning they aren't great for any use case. Like you say.

The invoicing app in particular I was referring to is Cakedesk. Made by a solo developer who sells it for a fair price. Easy to use and has all the necessary functions. Probably the name and the icon is holding him back, though. As far as I understand, the app is mostly a database and an Electron/Chromium front-end, all local on your computer. Probably very simple and uninteresting for a programmer, but extremely interesting for customers who have a problem to solve.

One person's "excessively complicated" is another person's "lackluster and useless" because it doesn't have enough features.

Yes, enterprise needs more complicated setups. But why are programmers only interested in enterprise scale stuff?

I'm curious: why don't YOU create this app? 95% of a software business isn't the programming, it's the requirements gathering and marketing and all that other stuff.

Is it beneath YOUR dignity to create this? What an untapped market! You could be king!

Also it's absurd to an incredible degree to believe that any significant portion of programmers, left to their own devices, are eager to make "big, complicated, enterprise-scale" software.

What makes you think that I know how to program? It's not beyond my dignity, it's beyond my skills. The only thing I can do is support boutique programmers with my money as a consumer, and I'm very happy to do that.

But yes, sometimes I have to AI code small things, because there's no other solution.