That’s right, because we’re not developers anymore— we orchestrate writhing piles of insane noobs that generally know how to code, but have absolutely no instinct or common sense. This is because it’s cheaper per pile of excreted code while this is all being heavily subsidized. This is the future and anyone not enthusiastically onboard is utterly foolish.
Firing off glib criticism that amounts to “No study on AI is valid beyond the release cycle of the models tested,” feels like the unconscious self-protection reflex we all default to when facing cognitive dissonance. It seems like it’s only easy to spot when someone you disagree with is doing it.
To me, it almost feels like a partisan political thing.
> I went to the coffeeshop and drank very good coffee listening to music. Then at night I sat and had a beer thinking about T.S. Eliot's 'The Wasteland', the effect of industrialization in England at that time and his views of how ennui affected the aristocracy.
Well, for those among us that are not aristocracy already, except for the vanishingly small number of people required to oversee such processes, we’re probably the closest we’re going to get to it. If they don’t need people to do the tech labor, we’ve got way more people than we need, so that’s a huge oversupply of tech skills, which means tech skills are rapidly becoming worthless. Glad to see how fast we’re moving in our very own race to the bottom!
Lol,a race to the bottom where too many tech savvy people are left unemployed while a few "privileged" get a decreasing buying power to maintain security of the digital tools that keep the whole digital dependent civilizations afloat?
Sounds like a great starting plot for an interesting story.
I kind of feel like software engineers working on improving AI are traitors working against other SE’s trying to make a living.
However…
I have to acknowledge my craft of SE has been putting people out of work for decades. I myself came up with business process improvement that directly let the company release about 20 people. I did this twice.
In the grand scheme it's good to invent things that replace human labor. It frees up people to do more interesting things. The goal should be to put everyone out of a job.
Well, because consuming art, reading poems, having code written for you that solves a problem, and listening to music is also fun. Recently I wanted a grand elegy to Britain written as the Empire started failing and set to music in a specific style. I had it playing in the background while fixing some issues with some software.
It truly was joyful to have this available to me. It didn’t have to have mass appeal or need me to pay the right artists the right amounts. I had it in moments.
And if you consider art something to be consumed for light entertainment, that viewpoint makes sense. For people that consider art a way to express, and conversely experience, otherwise inexpressible things about our humanity, your wonderful world is a cheap, superficial, and sad way for tech companies to amalgamate and sell other people’s ideas and labor.
To me the image of a world where everyone does menial work while entertaining themselves with AI-generated "art" doesn't seem fun, it seems extremely depressing and dystopian. I guess we just have different values.
Yes. The entire job markets for game concept art, stock photography, and storyboarding have been decimated and those were the lowest-hanging fruit for diffusion model applications.
The problem is that most people consider doing art, writing, making music, and heck, even coding, “more interesting” than orchestrating a pile of knowledgeable but idiotic robot interns because that’s what’s profitable.
Like beg on the corners and starve in the street? Trying to figure out how the basics of capitalism where labor is exchanged for money is not going to work well when the only jobs left are side gigs. Something will have to change and a lot of People will fight said change.
We will come up with new jobs, like we have for all of human history. I think even in an abundance utopia people will still work - we need purpose to sustain our existence.
The work will become even more fulfilling however.
Throughout human history that didn’t happen fast enough to avoid an astonishing amount of human misery. Nobody’s worried about the future of work. They’re worried about the people that rely on tech jobs for food, mortgage/rent, cancer treatments, elder care, retirement, et al. Look at what happened to the rust belt, coal country, etc. etc. etc.
I agree with you, IMO largely this is an affordability crisis though, which is fuelled by inflation. I don't really offer many solutions besides eliminating inflation. I apologise if that is insufficient (it is).
1) It’s not my job to fix all the problems of Capitalism. It’s painful to try to fight the system without collective action. My family and I have to eat too.
2) We have had a solution all along for the particular problem of AI putting devs out of work. It’s called professional licensure, and you can see it in action in engineering and medical fields. Professional Software Engineers would assume a certain amount of liability and responsibility for the software they develop. That’s regardless of whether they develop it with LLM tools or something else.
For example, you let your tools write slop that you ship without even looking? And it goes on to wreak havoc? That’s professional malpractice. Bad engineer.
If we do this then Software Engineers become the responsible humans in the loop of so-called “AI” systems.
It’s not your job to fix capitalism. But it is your job to evaluate if your money making skill comes at too high a price for others.
Say you found a job shooting people in the head for money. Like if you work for ICE or something…
You need to feed your family. Is this job ok? You may decide yes. I decided no. I will find another way to feed my family.
You don’t get to escape consequences because you are a small cog in a large system.
In the bigger picture, automation should free people from labor. But that requires some very greedy people to relax their grip ever so slightly. I imagine they see automation as a way to reduce reliance on labor, and if they don’t need labor, they don’t need people. So let them starve and stop having kids.
> But it is your job to evaluate if your money making skill comes at too high a price for others.
It’s not even the money-making skill: it’s the application of it. People that are good at shooting people can be beneficial to society as protectors or they can be the the business end of systemic oppression. People with software development skills don’t have to help optimize the motor in the brand-new shiny capitalism juicer.
> In the grand scheme it's good to invent things that replace human labor. It frees up people to do more interesting things. The goal should be to put everyone out of a job.
To a point. Then it just frees up people to do nothing.
> The goal should be to put everyone out of a job.
That is in fact the goal. The less labor capital needs, the more money (and power) the capitalists get to keep for themselves.
Do you think other people’s sense of ethics should be so transactional towards you? Companies that might sell your data to shitty date brokers have no allegiance to you. Muggers have no allegiance to the people they mug. They’re both executing their professional tasks that benefit the people they have allegience to. They’re contributing to the velocity of money in our society. The data might even be used to market beneficial goods and service. So thumbs up? Or would you feel differently if it was someone else profiting at your expense.
Every studio that made video content using AI video generation — think those all come commercials— basically just generated and regenerated the same few-second clips until they got an acceptable one. Hundreds and hundreds of times. I would be astonished if it would have been cheaper than actual CGI had the generation not been so heavily subsidized, and the product sucked.
Using an LLM for therapy is like using an iPad as an all-purpose child attention pacifier. Sure, it’s convenient. Sure there’s no immediate harm. Why a stressed parent would be attracted to the idea is obvious… and of course it’s a terrible idea.
It’s nothing like that. Using an iPad for study assistance is a conduit to many credible sources and tools. They can be evaluated using context, reputation, reviews, etc.
An LLM generates non-deterministic information using sources you can’t even know, let alone evaluate, and is more primed to agree with you than give critical and objective evaluation. It is, at best, like asking your closest parent to help you through difficult interpersonal situations: The interaction is probably, subconsciously, going to be skewed enough towards soothing you that you just can’t consider it objective. The difference is that with an LLM, that’s deliberate. It’s designed in.
Try working on a software project as a non-developer and see if you still respond so negatively to their sentiment. I can’t tell you how many times developers tried to arrogantly and dismissively explain design principles to me, as an experienced, degree-holding designer, because they skimmed a whole Tufte book at some point.
I was a developer for a decade before I went to school for design, so I’ve seen it from the other side. It’s not all bad: that overconfidence can lead people to tackle problems they’d abandon if they really understood the domain’s complexities. But often it presents like developers acting like their genius developer brain allows them to solve difficult problems in completely different fields with a few glib analogies and a few brief thought experiments.
I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but as a recent white->blue collar convert, (union metalworker,) tech workers are usually far less qualified than your average vocational high school graduate, way less physically capable, and waaaaay less tolerant of the sort of workplace unpleasantries in these types of jobs at the entry level. Your tech experience gets you pretty much zero advantage, and there are lots of very smart people outside of the software world that have put a whole lot more thought into that industry than you have. Consistently high labor demand meant companies had to comparatively treat tech workers with kid gloves, and as a result, most don’t realize how much smoke has been blown up our assess for decades. They start as soft, arrogant, maladroit noobs who will cosplay as working class for a couple weeks and either eat crow and stick with it long enough for their boss to not want to throw them off a bridge, or give up/get fired and try to pay the bills doing zero-entry-barrier gig work. I was fortunate enough to have been a blue-> white collar covert a couple of decades ago so I knew what I was getting into. The fantasy that a tech worker landing in a blue collar field will naturally rise above the rabble and shoot to the top is a workplace version of the fantasy where a white person finds themselves in some jungle full of “savages” and is so inherently impressive and sophisticated that they’re immediately made king.
Blue collar guy here who started working construction at 13 years of age. I concur that many white collar people won’t have an easy time adjusting to blue collar jobs. Some people do switch and thrive. Many however don’t have the mental fortitude to push through the misery of a non stimulating brain numbing endless job that could kill somebody if you stop paying attention.
There are also a lot of geniuses who might barely know how to read but can do incredible work and figure out some really difficult problems.
I consider myself blue collar even though I am a school teacher currently. It’s in my blood. I don’t especially like the work but I can do it and I am skilled at it.
My advice to anyone moving in to the blue collar world is to be respectful. If you are educated Don’t ever let on that your education makes you superior somehow. You will make a lot of enemies by being that person.
You will likely run in to people who really are quite unintelligent just be considerate and don’t get into debates with them. A lot of people come from poverty or really tough backgrounds and many are quite sensitive about it so don’t make a big deal about it.
On the other side there are many people who are quite intelligent and have the skills and knowledge of engineers even though they do not have any formal training or education.
IF you're reading Hacker News, you're probably not one of those people. You're probably someone for whom a university education, and working in software, are actually good fits.
Agree having made the switch from construction -> Tech job. Having sat around at least 25,000 tech related meetings until now worked with thousands of people in various roles in tech, i could count on my one hand the number of people from each tech company I worked that could qualify to survive the real blue collar world.
I just imagine random scenarios that would definitely happen— like some pallid, heavily moisturized former lead developer in $500 work clothes deciding to jockey for smartypants cred by ‘debating’ a shop supervisor/foreman/whatever about their approach to something as it’s being executed, or in a meeting in front of everyone, like they might interject about an architectural decision at a dev meeting… saying something like “well it’s basically a traveling salesman problem” and spewing some seriously flawed approach without realizing that the super is using a technique unequivocally proven superior in like the 1940s. Or arguing with an actual engineer about an engineering decision because they “read this substack article written by a software developer that puts a ton of research into this stuff.”
I agree. I am not naive! I would not be doing it as a lifestyle choice though. I'd do it because I need to. I have worked in a factory before so culture shock wont be there at least. I get my pay would half (luckily I am not on the US West Coast monster TC so merely it would half).
Yeah if software developers have anything to do with that, it’s providing the software or the money. Running a restaurant is extremely complex, specialized knowledge with a dizzying number of moving parts. Something like 40% of restaurants close their first year, and the large majority don’t make it 5.
Funding someone that knows how to run a restaurant and an engineer with food processing expertise, HAACP compliance and all that? Sure. But I was in that business in the Boston area and saw SO many tech geniuses blow through their funding before they even opened.
They don’t make up the majority of that 40%— it’s tough even for experienced people— but the majority of that crowd ends up in that 40%… or soon after if they’re good at convincing other people who have no idea what they’re doing to invest in it. The NRA (the other one) stats that I’m probably misremembering slightly are actually pretty eye-opening.
The problem is that the business requires showing the customer just enough of the labor, planning, etc that goes into their experience to make them feel like they’re getting a lot for their money, but not so much that they feel bad for enjoying it. Unfortunately, the customer doesn’t see most of that labor, and so often they think “well I’ve been to so many restaurants that I b know how they work… I could do this…” They’re almost always totally wrong.
Oh for sure. I worked in a restaurant for years through college: eventually the mildly famous chef/owner retired (staff found out by guests commenting on the newspaper story that night). Turned out he had sold it to an up-and-coming local star chef, a couple years past his “apprentice of the year award” and back from working in major kitchens overseas. We were convinced it would be dead within months: it was a 26yo chef who had never run a business, backed up by his wife (who was waiting tables for the first time ever as her second shift after a day job covering the mortgage), and his parents, who came across as thought they had never been inside a restaurant kitchen before that.
Turned out his dad had just been pushed into retirement from head of purchasing and logistics at a multi-state department store, so he ran the paperwork and it was a dream team. Mom was not my type of person but worked her ass off cleaning the whole place every day, very impressive. After about a year they were doing well enough that his wife got to quit working night shift there.
yeah. there absolutely are lots of very smart and capable people outside of tech. as someone who has seen the blue collar world "up close" (family businesses), its a different breed... the culture and attitude gap is enormous. shockingly so. most tech workers I know couldn't hang (don't hustle as hard, risk averse, liberal), but some skills may transfer, like problem solving and diagnosis, i.e. debugging.
This is a great example of the perspective disconnect.
In trades, the risk is usually not financial. I come home every day smelling of petrochemicals, with minor to moderate injuries, having been on my feet for 8 hours, sometimes up on ladders with greasy boots on, climbing on, into, and out of machines that could maul me without even making an unusual sound, and carrying 100lb sharp steel parts up stairs because it’s more efficient than waiting forces the shop hands to do it.
While the risks certainly have financial components, they’re more “get cancer, brain damage, lose a limb, or maybe even your life” risks. Risk averse is career death.
Most blue collar jobs require this. A mechanic usually has to provide his own tools. This can be tens of thousands of dollars just for a basic set that lets you do standard jobs. Then you might have specialty tools for specific equipment.
Even a framer or roofer is bringing his own hammers, saws, PPE, and anything else that's required. You don't just roll up to a job and get handed everything you need like a software job.
Big time money on tools and professional tools are not fucking cheap. I have about $1800 in measuring equipment alone that I had to buy out of pocket. Add in wrenches I can put my entire body weight into all day long, a drill index, multiple top-end hammers, screwdrivers, grinders, deburring tools, punches, clamps, handheld grinders, etc. etc. etc.
I think mechanics have it worse though. In my shop I mostly only need imperial tools, at least.
At least in the factory I worked in prior to becoming a software engineer, there was a significantly higher component of physical risk than in any of the software jobs I've worked in
I mean, brains transfer to any job, and it’s tough to be a developer if you’re genuinely stupid. So in that respect, sure. But I’m definitely not saying that developers aren’t smart enough to do blue collar work.
Well to be fair the risk of "npm install on your daily driver without sand boxing" is that you might have to wipe and reinstall everything, or even deal with a persistent malware and loss of data. There's no risk of going home missing a limb. That sort of risk does tend to grab your attention a lot more.
Hate to see you in gray, I went from dropout waiter to Google via my own startup in between. And you nailed e v e r y t h i n g, I am screenshotting this and reading it over and over again for years to come. Great writing too. Cheers.
I’ve never heard of platform Co-ops. Cool! Lots of people predicted that a beloved local coffee shop was doomed to fail when the workers got a loan and bought it to run as a completely flat cooperative. It’s been a few years and they are absolutely killing it. I’d love to see the tech version of that.
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