This seems interesting, but has so many signs of AI writing that I worry it's not just edited but generated from whole cloth. Probably still a lot of truth in there but it does give me pause!
Oh shyte, I use (and have used) these for a long time. Guess everything is classes as AI nowadays just yield and use it (everyone thinks you do anyway)
This comment certainly does not scan as AI! Look, this isn't perfect, but it's the best we've got, and so long as AI writing is meaningfully worse than human writing, people are going to try to tell the difference.
Sure, but we have no prior reason to expect that the 'rate of discoveries' is going to drop off significantly in the next few years. Certainly not stop entirely.
Overall in the economy, no, rate is discoveries is not going to drop off.
But in any specific industry or area? You often get a bunch of big discoveries, and then there is a long period of no important discoveries, because we've figured out the main aspects of that technological paradigm. The technology becomes commoditized and standard.
And that's the trillion dollar question with AI right now -- will we soon exhaust the potential of the current LLM paradigm? And we'll just have 20 or 30 years of figuring out mainly how to make LLMs cheaper and how integrate them into business processes, before somebody comes up with another fundamental breakthrough?
Or are we only 10% of the way in developing the current LLM paradigm? Where a decade from now models virtually never make mistakes and are smarter than basically any tenured faculty member in their field?
We have no reason to expect anything of the 'rate of discoveries' because that is completely independent of anything to do with productionizing them.
For all we know it becomes negative because all the people who understood how to train a trillion parameter model get killed by an asteroid during a conference.
If you want a specific example: where do those three pillars at the start come from? Why three and not four? Are all those three of equal importance, to the point where all three are pillars?
Furthermore, why are you offloading the task of understanding AI risk to an AI? That’s ironic to the point of self-parody.
The first part was an attempt at ironic humor, by repeating Gemini about the topic of offloading thinking to AI, not to be taken seriously as speculation or not.
As for the name changes..That is a fact you can look up, aswell as much analysis. It is my opinion that the move from framing this area from one of "saftey" to one of "national security", is interesting, and related to geopolitical movements towards "great-power", and ideological points of view that elevate "personal responsibility" and "reduced regulation" and is similar to long ongoing discussion in society like that about automobiles. I don't know if you call analysis speculation?
As for the part about Dimensionality. It is just my intuition — and so i suppose speculation — from some things like for instance the SolidGoldMagikarp glitch in early openai models.. How we understand all the way that there might be trigger certain outputs from a vastly large model? When those things can be completely opaque to human reason. Observability and Understandability are areas of research. I haven't seen anyone claiming that generative models outputs can be concretely controlled, thats why there is so many pre and post hoc work arounds.
So when a risk cant be eliminated, the question is how to manage it, and who's responsibility is that..
Who are you to say? Why do you have such little regard for everyone in the field, both pro- and anti- AI development? Do you think they're colluding to deceive us?
theres billions, even trillions of dollars on the line, why not start with the assumption they have every incentive to deceive, even if unintentional (ie, deceiving themselves)
> Depending on the processor, accessing the "privileged" mode can be done either by software interrupts, exceptions, or both. An operating system should pick one and stick with it.
Practically most will support access via both, but for different reasons. For example, page faults (which the software cannot possibly predict) are going to be exception-mediated, but syscalls (which the software asks for) are triggered via an interrupt.
In the past, one such "new role" was that of slave. In fact, we expect slavery is <10,000 years old! Yes, new roles will be created. But there's nothing to say that they'll be pleasant for us to take on.
And when have we not? When in history has mankind ever treated the idle poor well? What makes this age different, that we who can no longer work would be taken care of?
Well we're animals and "domesticated" is synonymous with "civilized", so no problem there. And I can't see why anyone would make themselves a "nuisance" when literally all their needs - and most of their desires - are being met, so whatever outcome you're referring to is extremely unlikely.
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