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I'm really not sure you can amortize deaths like that to individuals. Folks are dead or they're not.


Yes you can. People take minuscule amounts of risk everyday, by driving or even walking. While I agree there's a point where the risk isn't worth it even if the expected value is positive (eg. russian roulette to win a billion dollars), but we're nowhere near that point with 737 Max risk.


And the door either has a goat or a car. But before the event takes place (opening the door), it is perfectly reasonable to do risk analysis with odds and fractional goats.

Chances of dying because you flew on a MAX are still insanely low. Maybe worse than if it was an A320, but the absolute numbers have so many zeros between the decimal point and the value that they're basically the same: 0.


Deep geological time isn't very relevant to human civilisations. The Fall Of Civilisations podcast has great long deep dives into what does threaten them, and the score is about 50:50 between climate change and Outside Context Problems.


"siri, what is a proxy war?"


buy gold


Nothing runs at 99.99; 85% is a realistic nuclear reactor uptime. And remember to have multiple gensets so you can take them offline for maintenance.


Variability is smoothed with diverse overbuild and robust inteconnects (sorry, Texas).

Batteries are needed for peaker plants, like gas is used now. But they don't need to be everywhere.


Nuclear power stations have very slow demand response. That used to be done by gas peakers and hydro; in a decarbonised world that changes to battery peakers and hydro.


Interesting word choice "consumable" versus "parts require maintenance".

One suggests a lie, the other is just SOP in any plant with moving parts. Are you sure you're an engineer?


Do better Andy. Lying? Come on...


The carbon industry wants delay on decarbonisation. New nuclear projects are poster children for delay, because the industry has been mostly incompetent at shipping and lacks urgency.


"Serious designs" are nice but no pathfinder demo plants yet. And all that stretches the timescales.


It's a technology demonstrator, and one of the technologies it is demonstrating is "survive the night". Does the heating, panel and charge management all work as expected? Repeat! Then fly once the daily charge-state is understood.


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