>"Demis Hassabis' very recent estimate was for 50% chance of AGI by 2030 (i.e. still 15 years out)."

2030 is only 5 years out

That was his point lol, if someone is saying it'll happen in 5 years, triple that for a real estimate.

Seems likely that they are waiting to release o4 full results until the gpt-5 release later this year, presumably because gpt-5 is bundled with a roughly o4 level reasoning capability, and they want gpt-5 to feel like a significant release.

Do you still think there will be a gpt-5? I thought the consensus was GPT-5 never really panned out and was released with little fanfare as 4.1.

Marketing names aren’t really connected to product generations. We might target v3 of a product for a date and then decide it’s really 2.4, doesn’t mean we won’t market something as v3 later.

Yeah, just last month Altman said gpt-5 is coming in a few months, and betting/prediction sites are expecting it this year, probably in the summer.