It seems like the least efficient way to solve the problem. Theres lots of water in many places in the US, if water is just allowed to be priced by how scarce it is in California, maybe people will move to a place where it’s not such a big deal.
This is the sort of low quality reply that made me think twice about commenting. Every time I mention it it's another set of poor quality, no thought, drive by responses and downvotes.
Why do you think it's good to let the productive agricultural land of CA lay fallow? Why do you want areas in the east to go without proper flood control? Why do you think national food security is not a priority? I could go on... Read up on it if you like, or don't. Whatever.
I’m not a fan of people who say a comment is low quality because someone disagrees with them. I’m not going to engage any further with this discussion.
There’s a great 1983 paper on “the ironies of automation” with interesting thoughts on this. For example, if nobody knows the 80%, how do they gain experience to do the hard 20%? Or, if operators become essentially low skilled, low status babysitters, the smart people required to cover the challenging 20% might just leave for higher status roles. It’s been posted here before, worth a read if you haven’t come across it.
TLS certs are a single certificate. Corporate reporting is an aggregate of different types of numbers in disparate systems summed up through divisions that might as well be different companies.
Although… if there was a software engineering union, swinging a mandate for live public financial reporting is the type of non productive work that would keep everyone in a job.
The time scale is at least a thousand times faster than necessary for your retirement savings to be safe.
The problem of investment companies selling stupidly at 3am solves itself as they either learn or go bankrupt. And the counterparties making money off those dumb moves don't need to be 'connected'.
Any overnight mispricing is going to become an arbitrage opportunity for market makers, hedge funds, and HFT firms...whom will then compete with each other to mine that arbitrage opportunity until profits go to zero, solving the market inefficiency and mispricing problem over time (and by over time, I mean like probably the first few nights and then it stops being an issue forever).
In other words, a liquidity-based mispricing that happens consistently every night is going to quickly stop being mispriced since its so predictable.
The other way to think of it is that these parties are essentially middle men who make a cut of the difference whenever someone buys/sells far from market price.
Basically if you mis price something they screw you rather than the counter party who would be interested in taking the other side at market.
I think this is stupid and does not add value, but I don't think it's harmful. It's like the stocks equivalent of a junk flipper.
Yes, when you correct a mispricing in markets that is a valuable service and you tend to get paid in proportion to the mispricing you correct (this is why markets work so well, they provide dynamic incentives in a decentralized way).
In case you aren't aware, a world outside the US exists on different time zones and also invests in US capital markets.
Having 24/7 trading a massive value-add for the entire world who also invests in US companies, which benefits US companies tremendously given they will continue sucking up the world's capital.
This is yet another reason why global companies will continue going public in US markets instead of their own. Meanwhile Europe will continue struggling to form a capital markets union over the next 50 years while they slowly translate legal documents back and forth to each other in 42 languages, growing the fine dining economy of Brussels more than their domestic economies.
If you're not trading overnight and there's a flash crash that corrects itself overnight... it's the people who are trading overnight taking money from each other.
Most Americans who invest money don't trade at all. They pay some guy at a bank to do it, and the guy at the bank is exactly the kind of guy who is trading at 3am.
Most people are in simple retirement year funds which have a set algorithm which decides by simply rebalancing to follow an index and appropriately mitigating risk by shifting some assets towards bonds.
There is no one trading on a whimsy. The mutual fund founding documents specify an exact time of day (or times) at which the fund gets rebalanced and it simply follows the algorithm..
The price shocks discussed here will not affect that
Most of the time things will work as they are supposed to and arbitrage will work as a damper. Every once in a while you'll get a self-reinforcing loop and then it will work as an a run-away amplifier.
24/7 trading will definitely burn a lot of extra energy in datacenters, make some speculators a little richer, and make a LOT of retail investors nervous…
But what actual real-world problem will it solve?
I for one am skeptical that more liquidity is always good. I think that having achieved $0.01 spreads, we're well-past the point of diminishing returns with high-frequency trading.
That wouldn't be enough liquidity, and also wouldn't solve the problem if the auction happened at a specific time. Day traders would all put in their bid at the last possible moment.
What solves the day trading problem is doing chunked actions at random small intervals (like between 2-7 seconds). Then you can't put your bid in at the last moment because you won't know when it is. So your best bet is to put in your bid when you've chosen a price, knowing that it will resolve within seven seconds or less.
I do see your point regarding timing, but I don't see why daily isn't enough liquidity when, for decades, funds from trades have taken multiple days to clear.
The very existence of holiday weekends shows that it's actually totally fine if you go 72 hours without any trades resolving.
There are whole books on this, but the short summary is that there are infinite times when information can change that would affect the value of a company. Anything less than infinite trading is a compromise where the price is no longer reflective of the value. The bigger the gap in the time, the bigger the gap between price and value.
For example, if you could only trade once a day, let's say a company announces midday that some huge customer has just left their platform. Their price should drop, but without trading it can't. So now everyone knows that their value is lower, but can't do anything about it. So people who own that stock will hold their money and not make other trades, because they know they are going to lose a bunch when trading happens again.
> The very existence of holiday weekends shows that it's actually totally fine if you go 72 hours without any trades resolving.
Trading never stops. There is an entire secondary market that has after hours/weekend trading, and a tertiary private market when that one isn't open. It's just you (and all the other retail traders) who can't trade.
Which if anything proves the opposite of your point. Liquidity is so important that wealthy people set up an entire system to keep trading just so they can still have it.
> But what actual real-world problem will it solve?
I know most Americans don't travel, but are you aware that timezones exist and there's an entire world outside the US that also invests in US companies?
Why do you think global companies want to list in US capital markets instead of their own? Being the world's most desirable capital markets is a massive boon for the US economy and 24/7 trading will only accelerate this trend.
> I know most Americans don't travel, but are you aware that timezones exist and there's an entire world outside the US that also invests in US companies?
Not only am I dimly aware of the existence of these not-the-US places, but I actually live in not-the-US.
No, they stop hunt their way to depressed prices where they then buy anticipating the recovery while you closed out your “safe” retirement positions at -15%.
You use a trailing stop loss. You get closed out 15% down from the top, not 15% down from purchase. The alternative in a 24 hour market is worse — the news of a real event hits and by the time you wake up and respond you’re down 50% or more and the stock isn’t coming back.
This policy change is to hunt profit from a safety mechanism used by retail traders.
It is something that should yield a lot of profit for 24 hour trading systems during a downturn.
In the past, stupid situations on Wall Street have not resolved that way; they've resulted in disasters that cause economic harm to many people in the country and the world. Though sometimes people on Wall Street do make money from those situations.
We already have 23/6 trading with index futures. The S&P500 (ES), NASDAQ 100 (NQ), DOW (YM) will sometimes gap up or down on open just to match overnight trading.
Give an example don't leave us hanging. I'm really curious how you can find an example of a temporary market liquidity move turning somehow into a long term adverse event for a company. Never heard of it
Run continuously, non-delayed, but only sweep the order book at a random time every [1,2) seconds. Run for something like our current extended market hours.
Everyone gets the benefit of fast-enough execution and strong liquidity.
Crazy high-frequency gamesmanship goes away. Smart quantitative plays are still possible.
The best known (at least in the tech circles - in good part thanks to HN and Matt Levine) is probably IEX. The exchange guarantees that every participant is behind the exact same time delay. And they do that by having a sufficiently long spool of optic fibre between the exchange "broadcast switch" and the market maker computers.
Simple and effective. Relies only on laws of physics to create the delay.
There are also exchanges that run with "frequent batch auction" principles.[0]
Note that his half-jokey proposal for a total of 30 minutes of trading time a day is at this point a running theme. If my memory serves me correctly, he started talking about this phenomenon in the pre-plague years.
Even once per second seems like overkill. That interval would still largely just facilitate the weaponization of exceedingly low information latency.
30 seconds seems reasonable, 1 minute better, and 5 minutes still better. In all honesty even going as long as 30 minutes should still facilitate all legitimate purposes.
Honestly what would happen if the stock market didn't exist. It seems like these days the price of stock is so disconnected from lived reality that genuinely confused if it would be all that catastrophic
Well we’d go back to an era where private capital owns the world. The public would not be able to participate or benefit from the ownership of companies and share in the prosperity.
I should of used the term "equity" instead of "capital". I meant that the worlds largest companies would no longer be able to be owned by public equity and would only be available to those in the exclusive club of private equity.
I mean the average person already barely has any participation at all, and certainly doesn't benefit from it when their money gets dumped down the toilet because of some widespread financial scams and grifts that repeatedly happen over and over again.
Not by choice. Stocks are pushed onto Americans (as well as Europeans, and most people in the West) via their pension funds, advanced savings accounts, and sometimes even their salaries (via options). If normal savings accounts in their local credit union would offer adequate interest rates (and if paying in stocks was outlawed by their unions) stock ownership would plummet. I would be surprised if it would even exceed 2%.
And how many of those people are actively making decisions about what companies they are investing in instead of blindly putting money into a black box 401k account because they are financially punished for not doing so?
It's not disconnected from reality. You just don't understand it.
If the stock market didn't exist you would have less opportunities to invest in well priced companies and people would be manipulated in investing in opaque, often ridden with accounting shenanigans things like private equity.
The more companies are public and subject to price discovery done by sophisticated players the better it is for uninformed players like normal investors but also less sophisticated informed players like pension funds.
Like which one?
2008 crisis was caused by reckless lending by banks as a result of silly regulation (government guaranteeing loans), implicit promise of bailouts and you could argue corruption.
What does it have to do with the stock market?
It's a nice dismissing soundbite but you're just missing the broader point and real issues coming with people's money being invested in non public entities.
Besides, just because some problems also happen with solution A doesn't mean they wouldn't be worse with solution B. You are not really making a point just dismissing the idea of a public market without understanding the value of it.
that makes no sense. companies need capital, that's why there is a stock market. dividends are paid from past earnings, never capital (earnings are only a %age of the value of the capital) and not from higher expectations of the future.
And even that seems kind of generous to me. I see absolutely zero value in stock trading continuously for any length of time. Businesses don't make purchasing or investment decisions in that time span, nothing of significant value can even be created or sold or shipped in those time spans.
> “Your retirement savings crashed 30% because there wasn’t enough liquidity to cover a 3am panic over non-news”
I don't understand what that means so I'm guessing it doesn't apply to retirement savings in general. Does "liquidity to cover" imply that one made a bet that didn't work out?
Drawing a “nonsense” line between TUIs and GUIs is pretty arbitrary, it’s all pixels on a screen at the end of the day. People like the TUI vibe, and that’s a good enough reason to make and use them.
I love TUIs but one main reason for that is that they're keyboard centric. If I have to use the mouse it kills it for me, if both work then it's fine. I hope that modern TUI makers keep this in mind. What's great about the keyboard centric is that with a few keystrokes/shortcuts it's very easy to do repeatable work and takes less energy than hunting boxes to click on with the mouse.
TUIs aren't more inherently keyboard driven than well constructed GUIs. You can easily make a keyboard driven GUI that has all the shortcuts you'd add to a TUI. (Just don't let the "UX design experts" near it.)
The problem is that UX experts are attracted to the TUI space and may ruin it for us all with all kind of things that don’t make sense. TUIs are more likely to be keyboard centric our of necessity when mouse isn’t available or used sparsely.
It’s not hard to imagine a case where maybe there’s 2 offices that had their own separate aws accounts and they closed one.
AWS has been around for quite a while now. It’s also not impossible to believe that there are companies out there that might have moved from aws to gcp or something, and maybe it’s time to move back.
Do you mold it with your hands under running water to wash away the remaining fluids? Doing that and salting it makes it last for many weeks for me. I don’t even know how long it actually lasts, I’ve always eaten it all before it’s gone bad. Making butter is a way of preserving milk, so it should last more than a couple of weeks.
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