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If it's any consolation , VTI is free-float weighted so won't pick up very much SpaceX initially.

VTI is market cap free-float weighted, as is VOO and SPY. So what ETFs would this IPO be an issue with if not these?

I sent a note to my rep at Vanguard warning that they better not change the VTI rules to buy into this scam.

So sounds like this will be a great short candidate after the index re-weighting.


What, QQQ or SpaceX?

Either way, no, high frequency trading firms are going to beat you to the punch. And shorting elons other company, just because it's over valued by traditional metrics, didn't work out that great for most traders.


This is a slightly tongue-in-cheek way of saying that if you believe a security is severely mispriced then there is a straightforward way to express that opinion.


Shorting is really not that straightforward. It is a avery advanced topic because it mandates the use of leverage. Many (most) investors are long-only, especially the ones being taken advantage of here.


> especially the ones being taken advantage of here.

This is a great argument why buying an index is a poor choice for a long term investor. You can avoid a great deal of shenanigans by randomly purchasing stocks and holding them for 50 years. Even a 0.02% annual fee costs you 1% of your long term returns over that timescale.

But there’s tradeoffs to everything.


Index investing is a great choice for a long term investor who cares about simplicity, which should be the vast majority of them. Actually the best thing about holding individual stocks is probably the increased opportunities for TLH, but the nightmare of holding and managing hundreds of securities in your account is very seldom worth what you save on fees or deferred taxes.


You still owe the taxes on dividends generated by an index fund that automatically reinvests dividends. There’s ways around this like a 401k, but you can also own individual stocks inside a 401k or rollover to an account that lets you do so.


I don't know how that's a response to what I wrote. I'm not saying that an ETF is more tax efficient, although it is more tax efficient than a mutual fund. If you are worried about the tax drag of dividends then there are ETFs that seek to track spx, but without receiving dividends, by selling and rebuying around ex div dates. They're not established enough to trust with a lot of money, imo, but maybe it will become more normal one day.



And I'm sure there will be an inverse SpaceX ETF too. This still crosses the Rubicon from "investor" to "trader".


Tesla has been this for a long time since the price fundamentally does not reflect the quality or future of the company, yet the road is littered with dead Tesla bears.

Efficient markets hypothesis breaks down with Musk companies.


One way to think about this is you have a binomial distribution with p=0.8 and n=number of lying friends. Each time you increase n, you shift the probability mass of the distribution "to the right" but if n is even some of that mass has to land on the "tie" condition.

I wrote a quick colab to help visualize this, adds a little intuition for what's happening: https://colab.research.google.com/drive/1EytLeBfAoOAanVNFnWQ...


There are a few markets like Jacksonville and Atlanta where there is a lot of institutional ownership, but outside of those few cases impact of Blackrock et al on housing markets is effectively nil.


The Agricultural Revolution and its consequences have been a disaster for the human race.


To summarize the article: buying the Yes side of this market is like shorting treasuries. It's not a bet that treasuries will default, but rather a macro bet about that demand for cash (i.e. interest rates) will increase.


Great point. Never forget about counterparty risk!


Matt Levine has a bit about the best customer service your broker can provide is not picking up the phone in a crisis.

Bad UX is, intentionally or not, consistent with Vanguard's long-term index investing philosophy. Call us? Use our website? Whatever it is you are trying to do, you probably shouldn't be doing that.

I kid, but only a little.


It's interesting everyone's saying the UX is bad. I've had consistently good interactions with Vanguard's support over the years. I regularly get to talk to an actual human without waiting more than 10-20 minutes, and they're very helpful about getting things done and giving even basic advice about tradeoffs in different investing options.

The website isn't amazing, but I don't feel like it's terrible either. There's much worse 401k/IRA providers out there.


Can't get insurance -> can't get a mortgage -> can't buy a house


For new buyers, yes, but there's plenty of people who already have a house but now they have no insurance for it. And sure, the terms of their mortgage say that they have to have it, but what can the lender do if nobody will insure that particular property no matter who the current owner is?


That had been GitHub's model for their SF HQ office, more or less. Some local people used it as their daily office, but there seemed to always be a mini-summit or get together of remote folks happening each week.


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