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Not only is Hamas weakened, Hamas' and Iran's supporter (China, Russia) has been severely weakened compared to the start of the conflict. Russia is in a stalemate in the Ukraine invasion, and has lost significant economic and military resources since. Russia also lost significant influence in Middle East, with the Assad regime fall. China is a severe economic decline. Also, China distanced itself from Iran, most likely due to wanting to not get sanctioned by US and Europe. https://thediplomat.com/2024/11/china-is-recalculating-its-m....


Why compare to 2023 data? there's 2024 data readily available. https://energyandcleanair.org/december-2024-monthly-analysis...

1.) there's no need to focus on barrels per day; fuel export revenue per day is more important. and from the link, we can see that it was around 1B EUR per day in 2022, and now it's around 600M EUR per day in Dec. 2024. Not great, but as we will see, it's mainly propped up by China.

2.) top 4 buyers of Russia fossil fuels in December 2024 are China, Turkey, India, and EU. China being top buyer is not surprising, given they are allied in the war - China is cutting off drones to Ukraine while supplying more to Russia.

3.) fossil fuel shipment departures from Russia has steadily declined from 80% in Jan 2022, to less than 20% in December 2024.


When a lot of the oil trade between Russia and China/India and others is done in mutual currencies, revenue predictions are unlikely to be accurate.


> fossil fuel shipment departures from Russia has steadily declined from 80% in Jan 2022, to less than 20% in December 2024

What does No. 3 mean?


It means official Russian shipment of oil has decreased, but what takes its place is the growth of ‘shadow’ tankers. And that reduces G7+ shipping industry’s leverage over Russia. It's in the article linked above. Most of the shadow tankers have helped Russia's oil trade stay alive https://apnews.com/article/russia-sanctions-shadow-fleet-oil..., mainly due to Chinese entities. But recently EU has put more sanctions on China for that https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/eu-adopts-new-russia-sa...

The co-mingling of Russian and Chinese naval forces is also very evident recently, with the recent cutting of European underwater cable. Are Russia and China conducting undersea sabotage? | DW News https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2ObgVV-HJtI


What does “shadow tankers” even mean? These aren’t insured by the monopolies in the City of London so they’re “ghost” or “shadow” tankers?

Doesn’t make their oil carrying capacity any lesser.


> Doesn’t make their oil carrying capacity any lesser

They’re derelicts fond of puking up their contents [1]. More practically, dark crude sells at a 20 to 30% discount. (Granted, I know the Indian numbers more confidently than the Chinese refiners’.)

[1] https://www.politico.eu/article/russia-shadow-fleet-tanker-o...


“shadow tankers” mean pretending not to be Russia's tankers so as to evade sanctions.


> Are Russia and China conducting undersea sabotage?

this is still a question? yes, they are.


Most of these EV companies in China are going bankrupt, selling each car at a loss. Recently, Ji Yum Auto, founded by Baidu and Neely, shut down last December. A live streamer was live streaming selling the car. Upon hearing the news, she was bawling and told the listener to not to check out the car https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HYdm2K81bW0.

As Chinese EV makers close, drivers of “smartphones on wheels” say software updates and maintenance are in jeopardy. https://restofworld.org/2024/ev-company-shutdowns-china/


To put this in perspective, the number of car manufacturers in China has dropped from 300 to 150 in the past few years. Further consolidation is expected.

So it's probably a good idea to buy from an EV company that is profitable. For example BYD has a gross profit margin of over 20%. That's approximately double the profitability of Western firms.


yugo was also very profitable when it hit the US market with higher than 20% margins :)


Jeffrey Sachs is regularly featured by CGTN, the English-language news channel of state-run China Global Television Network, based in Beijing.

That's all you need to know about him.


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