You record the amount of time it takes people to do a crossword puzzle or play a game of chess. After a while you'll be able to make a distribution graph of how long it takes. Then you can give an accurate estimate along with a probability.

The only reliable way to estimate is to find another relatively similar project and compare it to that. You can say stuff like this new project is roughly similar in scope to Project X but maybe it's about 20% more complicated due to more scope so it will probably take about 20% longer than what Project X took.

The key is to keep data on how long past projects actually took (which not a lot of organizations do). But once you have that real data, you can understand all the unknown unknowns that came up and assume that similar things will come up on the new project.

In my experience that's where story points come in. "This comparable project took this number of story points, therefore <new project> should be similar, resulting in a comparable amount of time." The usage of story points help to adjust for complexity.

The story points are that data point in the past used to indicate the future.

Except if you've already done a very similar project before, the unknowns are now knowns. And more importantly, problems already have developed solutions that can be copied or reused, and not developed. So a very similar project should be an overestimate, and a repeated task should take a fraction of the first time.

How does it help with medium-term planning when it's just pointing tasks in one sprint?

Because you often estimate something like three or four times as many tasks as actually get included in the sprint. You can't possibly know in advance which features will actually wind up in the sprint until you've considered all the possible candidates. You estimate, then the PM confers with stakeholders to prioritize what's actually most important and figure out the "puzzle" of which pieces add up to a coherent sprint, and then work starts.

To the developer, it seems like short-term sprint planning. But to the PM and stakeholders, it's very much medium-term planning because they're picking tasks for this sprint in light of what they also estimate the following couple sprints will look like (given current information, which is always going to change).

It's not as bad as it sounds, because when you're re-estimating something you already estimated in the past 2 planning pokers, it's usually pretty quick. You're just seeing if the previous estimate needs to be revised based on what the team has learned since. Most time is usually spent on newly proposed features, or features that have significantly changed or been split up.

"Truth is not truth" - Rudy Giuliani

Why is every sentence also a paragraph?

I find myself doing this for anything "work related" like slack. It's definitely a thing on Linkedin posts.

The idea is it's like TikTok for text. Short self-contained visual "things" that keep grabbing back your fading attention. I don't like it, but I like that I think about why it is and that, in a "professional" environment, it somehow (sadly) makes sense.

When I come across this sort of writing I skip it. If the writer can't be bothered to organise their ideas I won't do it for them. I find that writing style oddly grating.

In a post about how thin, superficial (and yes, lazy) things are destroying the value of your life, sigh...

Maybe it will reach the people most in need of it that way

I've only ever seen this style as a satire of hustle bros. So I assume it must be a real thing originally.

when you write like this

people think it's more profound

than it really is

the last haiku line

should be about nature, so:

flies are really gross.

for what it is worth

sometimes it does seem to work

your mileage may vary

You can also call them and get it refunded after the fact

Green card holders can have their GC stripped for committing crimes. If free speech becomes a crime then the GC is at risk.

Note - I don't agree with it but I think this is the logic the current administration is using.

No, the administration is using a clause that allows the Secretary of State to designate a person as a threat to the country and strip their green card. They have explicitly said it is not based on any accusation of crime.

I had a similar experience. I worked for a place where if you worked 48 minutes more per day, you'd get every 2nd Friday off. This was a unionized place that was pretty strict about not working extra hours due to overtime rules. After being hired, I didn't partake in this but had pretty short workdays. I would start at 8:30 and then leave at 4. It was great. However, pretty much everyone in the company did the system to get the 2nd Friday off. So I tried switching to that and I felt the same. It just felt so much longer.

How did you "run into each other, from time to time"?

This seems to be the key part. There's research that shows that relationships are built via multiple, random encounters. Do you think he still would have dropped by your office if you hadn't had these run ins?

I would go to Tokyo, once or thrice a year. Long trip. I don't really miss it.

We'd usually run into each other at the train station, or in the corridors of the meeting room floor.

Our meets were always quite brief and serendipitous. We were in very different orbits.

IME I've found there to be the expectation that there's about 10-15% available for negotiation to make the candidate feel like they got a win. Of course, some exceptions may apply.