AI coding is great, but iteration speed is absolutely not a desirable trait for a runtime. Stability is everything.
Speed code all your SaaS apps, but slow iteration speeds are better for a runtime because once you add something, you can basically never remove it. You can't iterate. You get literally one shot, and if you add a awkward or trappy API, everyone is now stuck with it forever. And what if this "must have" feature turns out to be kind of a dud, because everyone converged on a much more elegant solution a few years later? Congratulations, we now have to maintain this legacy feature forever and everyone has to migrate their codebase to some new solution.
Much better to let dependencies and competing platforms like bun or deno do all the innovating. Once everyone has tried and refined all the different ways of solving this particular problem, and all the kinks have been worked out, and all the different ways to structure the API have been tried, you can take just the best of the best ideas and add it into the runtime. It was late, but because of that it will be stable and not a train wreck.
But I know what you're thinking. "You can't do that. Just look at what happens to platforms that iterate slowly, like C or C++ or Java. They're toast." Oh wait, never mind, they're among the most popular platforms out there.
Since when we accepted that we can’t go fast and offer stability at the same time?
Time is highly correlated with expertise. When you don’t have expertise, you may go fast at expense of stability because you lack the experience to make good decisions to really save speed.
This doesn’t hold true for any projects where you rely on experts, good processes and tight timelines (aka: Apollo mission)
What’s the evidence for anything software engineers use? Tests, type checkers, syntax highlighting, IDEs, code review, pair programming, and so on.
In my experience, evidence for the efficacy of software engineering practices falls into two categories:
- the intuitions of developers, based in their experiences.
- scientific studies, which are unconvincing. Some are unconvincing because they attempt to measure the productivity of working software engineers, which is difficult; you have to rely on qualitative measures like manager evaluations or quantitative but meaningless measures like LOC or tickets closed. Others are unconvincing because they instead measure the practice against some well defined task (like a coding puzzle) that is totally unlike actual software engineering.
Evidence for this LLM pattern is the same. Some developers have an intuition it works better.
My friend, there’s tons of evidence of all that stuff you talked about in hundreds of papers on arxiv. But you dismiss it entirely in your second bullet point, so I’m not entirely sure what you expect.
I’ve read dozens of them and find them unconvincing for the reasons outlined. If you want a more specific critique, link a paper.
I personally like and use tests, formal verification, and so on. But the evidence for these methods are weak.
edit: To be clear, I am not ragging on the researchers. I think it's just kind of an inherently messy field with pretty much endless variables to control for and not a lot of good quantifiable metrics to rely on.
Also, lines of code is not completely meaningless metric. What one should measure is lines of code that is not verified by compiler. E.g., in C++ you cannot have unbalanced brackets or use incorrectly typed value, but you still may have off-by-one error.
Given all that, you can measure customer facing defect density and compare different tools, whether they are programming languages, IDEs or LLM-supported workflow.
It's not the worst metric ever, but is the study in question observational or controlling the problem?
My issue with the observational studies is that basically everything is uncontrolled. Maybe the IDEs are causing less defects. Or maybe some problems are just harder and more defect prone than others. Maybe some teams are better managed or get clearer specifications and so on. Maybe some organizations are better at recording defects and can't be fairly compared with organizations that just report less. The studies don't ever reach the scale where you become confident these things wash out.
If they control the problem, most of those issues are eliminated (though not all, for example the experience and education of the participants still needs to be controlled), but now you are left wondering how well the findings transfer from the toy projects in the experiment into real life.
But finally, it's still not a perfect metric because not all defects are equal, right? What if some tool/process helped you reduce a large number of mostly cosmetic defects, but increases the occurrence of catastrophic defects?
re: LoC, there's some signal here, but it's such a noisy channel, I've never read a study that I thought put it to good use. Happy to have my mind changed if you have a link to one.
> Also, lines of code is not completely meaningless metric.
Comparing lines of code can be meaningful, mostly if you can keep a lot of other things constant, like coding style, developer experience, domain, tech stack. There are many style differences between LLM and human generated code, so that I expect 1000 lines of LLM code do a lot less than 1000 lines of human code, even in the exact same codebase.
I was more thinking in terms of creating a benchmark which would optimized during training. For regular projects, I agree, you have to count that anyway
I just loaded the nytimes.com page as an experiment. The volume of tracking pixels and other ad non-sense is truly horrifying.
But at least in terms of the headline metric of bandwidth, it's somewhat less horrifying. With my ad-blocker off, Firefox showed 44.47mb transferred. Of that 36.30mb was mp4 videos. These videos were journalistic in nature (they were not ads).
So, yes in general, this is like the Hindenburg of web pages. But I still think it's worth noting that 80% of that headline bandwidth is videos, which is just part of the site's content. One could argue that it is too video heavy, but that's an editorial issue, not an engineering issue.
Why are we supposed to think it's normal to see videos on every page? Even where it's directly relevant to the current page, what's the justification in thrusting those 36.30mb on the user before they explicitly click play?
It’s a news site with a lot of auto-playing video. If you like that kind of content, great. If not, there’s lots of other websites with different mixes of content. I subscribe to the economist which has few videos and they never auto play.
But that’s a question of taste. 5mb of JavaScript and hundreds of tracking assets is not.
If there is a skill to using LLM coding agents, I think it is mostly just developing an intuitive sense for how to prompt and the “jagged frontier” of LLMs.
IME, the tools are largely interchangeable. They are all slightly different, but the basics of prompting and the jaggedness of the frontier is more or less the same across all of them.
Switching from codex to claude code is orders of magnitude simpler than switching from c# to java or emacs to vim.
THe HN title seems very misleading to me. How is this, in any sense of the word, "formal?" I don't see that particular word used to describe this tool on the web page itself.
The site does describe it as a "programming language," which feels like a novel use of the term to me. The borders around a term like "programming language" are inherently fuzzy, but something like "code generation tool" better describes CodeSpeak IMHO.
The Haifa daycare study can’t be used to extrapolate much.
They fined parents (IIRC) ~$3 per late pickup. Rerun the study with a $300 fine and let’s see how it pans out. It’s an interesting finding, but that then people take it to mean that fines don’t work (no matter their size) is insane.
Well, If the staff got stiffed on the fee "many times", and the parents were allowed to bring their kid back.. the place didn't charge $1 per minute late. They just bluffed and got called on it.
(apologies for the immediate edit, changed my wording)
I understand that you could not keep the child till you were paid (kidnapping and ransom shouldn't be a business plan!), but you could refuse them future service until they paid.
The nursery has clear times that it is "open". I must drop off my child between A and B O'clock in the morning, and I must collect them between X and Y O'clock in the afternoon. Like a shop - they are allowed to have opening hours.
The issue is that they can't just close when they want if there's a child still there. So they have to have some way of enforcing these rules on parents. A "per minute" fine seems appropriate, so that it's more the later you are. And you need the fine to be enough that it is punitive enough, when considered against the income of your parents. Otherwise it provides no incentive. Ours is not $300 (more like $30), but it seems fair.
That's largely in line with unplanned or off-hours work for many professionals in the area of a city. If you want for example, plumbing done after normal business hours $300 per hour is a typical rate. In at least one case I paid $50 just to get a supply shop to open their doors after hours to get the needed parts to repair my own home.
It sounds like a great policy. Good news is that you can choose to be on time or pay the penalty or choose another provider who hasn't decided to implement this...yet.
I'm shocked by your question. I honestly would like to hear why you think this should not be acceptable. Why should they continue working overtime and cut into their own personal/family time because of the parent's failure?
Let's say you have a job interview. You're 5min late, so they either don't hire you, or the receptionist says the interviewer is now not available. Are you now due the salary, because you being this late 5min cost you a lot of money?
If you in a private contract reject the terms of paying $5 per minute late, well then the other party now knows you plan to be late a lot, so they'll be glad if you take your business elsewhere.
Keeping people from being able to go home after their workday, effectively forced overtime, is incredibly disrespectful. And even if "it's not your fault", you are the only one that could have prevented it. So incentives should be in place that you don't. $5 per minute sounds fair.
If you force me to stay late for a full hour you'd BETTER pay me triple digits. But in this case the $300 for an hour may have to be shared among several people.
It's too late to edit my other comment, but it's shocking to me how the people downvoting that comment can have such a lack of empathy and respect for people working in daycare.
I can't understand how one can treat people like servants, forcing them into unpaid overtime, to wait until I'm good and ready to show up. And to be upset and call it "unacceptable" to compensate people when you mistreat them.
A $3 fine is a good portion of someone's disposable income
and a $300 fine is not much of someone else's.. A civil
penalty of that nature almost guarantees some part of
the population will view it like the $3 fee.
This is exactly why license points (leading to suspension) are better than fines.
If the ticketing decision made by an automated camera system is deemed acceptable when issuing mere fines akin to parking tickets, but deemed unacceptable when issuing other penalties (which don't have this wealth inequity issue we are discussing now, at least not exclusively), that's effectively a poor tax.
More broadly, I think it's important to distinguish (more than we do) what aspect of justice a fine is supposed to be for, particularly between restorative versus punitive. The first is what it costs to fix measurable damage-done, the second is what we need to ensure the person cares to change their behavior.
The government operating automatic camera citation systems, almost never is interested in improving safety or even minimizing undesirable behavior- often the placement of such cameras is done to maximize revenue (as when red light cameras are placed at long-cycle-time intersections vs intersections with a history of accidents). And it’s been documented that some cities have reduced yellow light times (which almost always leads to more citations) rather than increasing yellow light times (which usually leads to fewer people running the yellow, because people are less likely to take a chance after the light has been yellow a long time).
There’s a lot of compelling evidence that these systems are just revenue machines.
I don't like paltry sums like this. $300 is a significant financial impact to someone who's barely making ends meet, and absolutely nothing at all to a billionaire. "If the penalty for a crime is a fine, then that law only exists for the poor."
Make it a tiny % of net worth, with a modest minimum and watch EVERYONE obey. Or at least something meaningful to everyone, or don't make it a fine. Use some other carrot or stick.
> I don't like paltry sums like this. $300 is a significant financial impact to someone who's barely making ends meet, and absolutely nothing at all to a billionaire.
One thing about daycares is that you will essentially never find "someone who's barely making ends meet" and "a billionaire" with kids at the same daycare, so a surcharge for out-of-normal-expectations service does not need to be designed to address both cases.
(In fact, you'll probably not find a billionaire with kids at any daycare, their hired childcare workers won't be shared with other people, and will probably be adequately compensated up front in a way which anticipates a fair degree of schedule variability.)
OTOH, with red light cameras, you also don't need to scale the fine to work with both, because the entire purpose is to bind the lower classes while exempting the upper from any substantial burden. (The least cynical explanation is that it is to discourage behavior which might incur liability grossly exceeding the mandatory level of insurance company by those least able to cover the cost of that liability, thereby avoiding uncompensated harms, but the realistic explanation is...not so generous.)
Something I heard from someone who worked at the Palo Alto Apple Store two decades ago:
Steve Jobs's kids drew on an eMac with markers or something. He made them make an appoint for the store's Genius Bar and wait in line to have it looked at like everyone else. I don't know anything about how the staff tried to clean it or the outcome.
X% of net worth is still a bigger deal to someone with a net worth of $20 than to someone with a net worth of $20M, even though the latter may get some sticker shock. And it's possible (if rare) to have a reasonably middle-class lifestyle and an actually negative net worth. Presumably you would not make it possible to pay off student loans by repeatedly violating a red light, although it would be very funny.
You’d be surprised at the numbers of people living middle-class lifestyles with negative net worth. Credit card debt, car loans (with a too-small down payment, a car purchase can easily cause one’s net worth to decline the second you take delivery on the car), underwater mortgages, not to mention student loans.
But that makes wildly different incentives to enforce, depending on the target. We all know this stuff is all about revenue enhancement, and in that capacity, the targets will become the whales.
Or how about the curb weight of the car? Higher mass means you're doing a lot more damage in an accident. People might think twice about buying an F250 for their grocery getter.
I mean as a much greater "study", look at the UK - government introduced fines for parents of kids missing school, and the rate of absenced increased - because parents see it more as a cost that you just have to pay to go on holiday during school year.
I get your point, but I doubt the fine could have been ethically higher. Domino's drivers killed dozens of people in speed-related accidents before they ended their 30-minute guarantee.
I don't think our society is ready for the combination of automatic enforcement and truly punitive penalties. We readily demonize the accused; just having your mugshot taken can end your employability. Yet many of us break laws daily -- speeding, jaywalking, watering the lawn during the day, even plugging in a microwave oven without a building permit in some jurisdictions -- and society still works because we don't expect much enforcement. We are heading toward a future where everyone will have marks on their permanent record, but today our society tut-tuts, or much worse, at anyone who does.
"Domino’s confirmed it knew of 20 people who died in crashes involving its drivers in 1988 (the National Safe Workplace Institute would later claim Domino’s delivery drivers had about the same death rate as miners, who had a fatality rate of ~35 per 100k)."
It is understandable that someone who only lived in the United States or a low-enforcement place would have this world view. I'm more sanguine about the trajectory of our society.
Australia, Netherlands, Germany, Austria, etc, have well-enforced traffic laws. Speeding is the exception rather than the rule, unlike the United States, where one can expect the flow of traffic to be 10-20 miles per hour over the posted limit. Yet these societies don't suffer from an excess of enforcement or consequences in other areas. For example, it is legal to walk around in public with a bottle of beer in virtually all of Europe.
What we have seen in the United States is a reduction of many hardly-enforced laws. Jaywalking and minor drug possession have been decriminalized in several US states. This is due to voter interest. It will continue to be up to the public to decide what do to when enforcement can catch up to excessive laws.
In the Netherlands fines are insane. If you pick up your garbage bin two hours too late from the street corner, you pay 210 euros.
On the other side, if you sell drugs to kids and have a weapon, nobody touches you.
Yes, you can sometimes walk around legally with a beer bottle here.
I don't think you did get my point (my fault perhaps), as my only point is that if you take away from the Haifa study that fines will automatically increase the prevalence the targeted behavior in all situations, that's an insane conclusion to draw. There are lots of variables at play: the size of the fine, how consistently and strictly it is enforced, the ability of the finer to collect the fine, the social context, and so on. The Haifa study examines none of these. It does does highlight an interesting phenomenon, but without further studies that control for these variables, I don't think we can just blindly assume that the outcome in the Haifa day cares will apply to all situations where a fine is levied.
I see all the time on the Internet (and even IRL once) people make claims like, "oh, carbon taxes will just increase CO2 output, you know like in that Israeli daycare study." Drives me nuts.
Are fines the best possible solution to this particularly traffic problem? I have no idea. I'm not an expert in this area. But I am highly confident that whatever relation it has to the Haifa daycare study is so incredibly tenuous that it is not worth mentioning.
We might be talking past each other. Call Haifa a parable, if you will. I understand why you find fault with the study, but I invoked it to call out (quoting myself) that a fine can also give permission for unwanted behavior. That point adds to yours and doesn't contradict it.
The reason I said anything in the first place is that I object to automatically administered punishment. Either separately can be OK. Automatically administered? No problem, that's called a tax (including use taxes like tolls). Punishment? Then we'd better have due process, and yeah, it's going to be expensive and labor-intensive to administer, but that's critical in a free country. That's why I called out the "is better than" quote. I think it's strictly worse.
Very hard for me to believe Musk didn’t overpay for Twitter. So whatever he saw, I don’t think was there. Hard to know completely for sure given it is private. But I strongly suspect that money definitely would be making him more in passive investments.
If the argument is that it was a stupid business decision, but he had other motives (clout, etc…), sure whatever.
A paper being peer reviewed is a good sign, but I feel like the signal is usually over interpreted.
Peer reviewed does not mean the findings of the paper are established fact or scientific consensus. It does not mean that the findings have been replicated by other scientists. It does not mean that the paper relied on a robust methodology, is free of basic statistical errors, or even free of logical fallacies.
Some of these limitations are due to the limitations of peer review itself. Others are just side effects of the way science works (for example, some ideas start as small, unimpressive experiments that are reported on in papers, and the strength of the findings is gradually developed over time). Obviously sometimes the prestige (or lack thereof) of the journal the paper is in decreases (or increases) some of these issues.
Anyway, peer review is a very noisy channel (IMHO).
Speed code all your SaaS apps, but slow iteration speeds are better for a runtime because once you add something, you can basically never remove it. You can't iterate. You get literally one shot, and if you add a awkward or trappy API, everyone is now stuck with it forever. And what if this "must have" feature turns out to be kind of a dud, because everyone converged on a much more elegant solution a few years later? Congratulations, we now have to maintain this legacy feature forever and everyone has to migrate their codebase to some new solution.
Much better to let dependencies and competing platforms like bun or deno do all the innovating. Once everyone has tried and refined all the different ways of solving this particular problem, and all the kinks have been worked out, and all the different ways to structure the API have been tried, you can take just the best of the best ideas and add it into the runtime. It was late, but because of that it will be stable and not a train wreck.
But I know what you're thinking. "You can't do that. Just look at what happens to platforms that iterate slowly, like C or C++ or Java. They're toast." Oh wait, never mind, they're among the most popular platforms out there.
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