You miss the major factor in your compensation: pricing pressure due to supply/demand.
By removing all the junior engineers, you've fundamentally changed the market forces longer term and most people expect that to negatively impact you in the supply demand curve regardless of whether or not the statements you've made above are true, which they most likely are for senior engineers.
In removing junior developers, leaving only senior developers, wouldn't that reduce supply, making the price go up, not down? It's been a while since Econ 101 for me though.
The author misses the forest for the trees. He's accurately articulating the current state of tools he's using but isn't acknowledging or extrapolating the next derivative I.e the rate of improvement of these tools.
That being said, everything is overvalued and a lot of this is ridiculous.
> He's accurately articulating the current state of tools he's using but isn't acknowledging or extrapolating the next derivative
Extrapolation would reasonably show that they're reaching an asymptote, graph cost vs improvement on a chart; you'll see that they are not proportional.
- The improvements from each subsequent model have also plateau-ed, with even regressions being noticeable
- The biggest players are so wildly unprofitable that they are already trying to change their plans or squeeze their current fanbase and raise their rates
They have stopped improving to match for the increase of the rate their costs and benefits. It's simple mathematics, improvements in efficiency don't match the increases in costs and the fact that they are extremely unprofitable, and all that data points to a bubble.
It's one of the most obvious bubbles if I have ever seen one, propped only by vibes and X-posts and Sama's promise that AGI is just around the corner, just inject a couple trillion more, trust me bro. All that for a fancy autocomplete.
This entire post smells like someone who's salty and trying not to face reality. I might not even disagree entirely with what's being stated here but the framing is just clearly wrong
Data engineering completely automated by a startups technology. This dataset sells for hundreds of thousands a year and can be fully cleansed and prepared from raw data purely with AI.
OAI spends gobs of money on Mercor and Windsurf telemetry gets them similar data. My guess is they saw their Mercor spend hitting close to 1B a year in the next 5 years if they did nothing to curb it
By removing all the junior engineers, you've fundamentally changed the market forces longer term and most people expect that to negatively impact you in the supply demand curve regardless of whether or not the statements you've made above are true, which they most likely are for senior engineers.
reply