Like most models its data dependent. Had quite a lot of success (was paid) using it on data with multi-seasonality (daily plus seasonal trend) with regressors and change points, where there is not a lot of other options.
As its a General Additive Model you can decompose the prediction into parts put them in front of a non-technical user for validation i.e. show effect of daily seasonality, yearly, holidays and regressors. You could even use it to show visually where the model is going wrong for predictions on a blog post ;)
Is it the most accurate model on all time series? No but it is useful and good enough for certain use cases.
I find it quite interesting what you can do with about 100 lines of stan code. Here is good link on some one building prophet in pymc3 rather than stan to explain its innards.
If you want something more flexible you can drop down to this level of code i.e. pymc3, pyro, tfp and bsts. If just want a univarate forecast then ensembles of state space methods are hard to beat as evidenced by the M competitions.
But It’s Tough to Make Predictions, Especially About the Future
As its a General Additive Model you can decompose the prediction into parts put them in front of a non-technical user for validation i.e. show effect of daily seasonality, yearly, holidays and regressors. You could even use it to show visually where the model is going wrong for predictions on a blog post ;)
Is it the most accurate model on all time series? No but it is useful and good enough for certain use cases.
I find it quite interesting what you can do with about 100 lines of stan code. Here is good link on some one building prophet in pymc3 rather than stan to explain its innards.
https://www.ritchievink.com/blog/2018/10/09/build-facebooks-...
If you want something more flexible you can drop down to this level of code i.e. pymc3, pyro, tfp and bsts. If just want a univarate forecast then ensembles of state space methods are hard to beat as evidenced by the M competitions.
But It’s Tough to Make Predictions, Especially About the Future