What about punishment on AI exponential for security failures, electric chairs for CEO of high ranked frontier models that gets jailbroken by geopolitical adversaries.
The chance of US debasing currency to dig out of debt hole by brrrrting money printer is not zero.
But 15 years is also plenty of time for PRC to establish reusable and lithography to invalidate SpaceX valuation rational by driving terrestrial dc and launch to commodity prices. It's like EVs, anything PRC decides to prioritize industrially, competitors going to have a bad time, but still doesn't stop market for valuating Tesla more than all PRC auto producers combined.
Would not be out of question for finance bros to figure out how to continue decoupling valuation from reality if that keeps system going.
Pop increase faster than housing / good jobs. The usual. Tried to juice economy post covid with MASS Indian immigration, for reference peak "Chinese" immigration was post HK handover was 60k, settled at 40k per year, lots of Chinese wealth transfer to Canada. Indian immigration went from 60k per year to over 140k, outrageous amount. Bluntly, most of west including Canada gets second tier immigrants, all the good opportunities in US, Canada doesn't get to retain tier1 talent, and Indian immigrants are in aggregate less wealthy. The entire point of brain drain is to get best brains, or in lieu get wealth. Canada got neither. This not knock on Indian immigrants, who work just as hard as every other, just acknowledging value proposition is not the same.
The broader context is Canada is on paper a small pop country with sufficiently alright governance to get per capita rich selling shit from ground. The more people you have have, the less that model works, and frankly Canada at 25m in the 00s already passed that point (vs 6m Norway). It doesn't help that... foreign influence have stagnated Canadian fossil/extractive industries development. Trudeau thought it was good idea to aim for 100m Canadians by 2100 (century initiative)... which on paper makes sense - only way for Canada to compete/influence vs US is heft, but of course that means a lot of brown and eventually black people fighting for housing and opportunities in the interregnum.
Unsurprisingly, broken housing market = no one likes that interregnum.
Canada is really bad with housing and inftrastructure. Blame immigrants not crack head white politicans who see bike lanes as the devil take car and oil money whole worshiping Trump and far right parties all over the world.
Immigrants not worth their economic value are the problem. That's not blaming "immigrants" but "immigration policy", which like housing policy - failure of politicians. But ultimately immigrants, who are not citizens are the going to be the scape goat. And reducing/denying/removing immigrants is short term more feasible than solving political sclerosis that require longer timelines, if can be fixed by system at all.
The overwhelming majority of immigrants are worth it and long term they all are because they have more kids. Every immigrant who comes grown up with minimal education is a huge benefit.
Also its acceptable to have some immigrants who are not 'worth it', because it is something that is literally good to do, you are improving peoples lives.
> who are not citizens are the going to be the scape goat
Mostly because of far right misinformation.
> And reducing/denying/removing immigrants is short term more feasible than solving political sclerosis that require longer timelines, if can be fixed by system at all.
Its a falls believe that removing immigrants is somehow easy. Its not, its politically as hard as building new transit.
The difference is that building new transit is going to be great for everybody, specially Canadians who already own property or just live in the region, while focusing on removing immigrants will hurt everybody on net.
So the right solution is to focus on solving the fundamental problems you have no matter if immigrants or not.
Unlikely with Canadian exploding diploma mill immigration patterns post covid i.e. the 100k increase in Indians. That's not some, i.e. a few 1000 refugee/asylum charity to make feel good headlines. That's structurally unsustainable. Hence new cap reduction and strict field of study rules. Reality is Canada was importing fuckload of low skill hoping to juice economy short term with international tuition injections, but having students fill service and gig jobs driving up rent / suppressing wages / straining infra / services is bad short term politics and bad long term ROI. These generally aren't turnkey high skilled immigrants that boost economy long term. These aren't even wealthy economic immigrants dump $$$ into economy, these are bluntly marginal immigrants from poor households that goes into debt/leverage and have to take low end jobs with high remittance culture to payback - the give/take ratio is not great. They are no where nearly as "worth it" as a rich PRC international students dropping $$$ into economy and trying to capital flight $$$ into Canadian economy. And removing them is easy... a few signatures to cap study permits, change crs and pgwp requirements, already down ~70% from peak, much easier to building. Of course building is great for everybody, but Canada ain't building.
The right solution is move back to sustainable high-value immigration patterns. 60k to 160k Indians is unprecedented. Like 2nd/3rd largest cohort is PRC and PH at ~40k. 160k per year from any country is stupid policy, only justifiable if the plan is basically to steal their tuition and kick them out of the country after making PR/citizenship harder, i.e. Canada bait-switch (scammed) a bunch of Indian villagers pooling their limited resources together, and it's looking likely that's how this saga will end. Again, it's not Indian immigrants fault, but they don't vote so they're the one's whose going to get screwed because bad policy screwed Canadians who vote.
They invested in a labelling company called "Deep Search" that news confused with "Deep Seek". It was corrected like a week later, of course very not agenda driven americansecuirtyproject never followed up / did retraction.
Too annoying to track down the original posts, but here's mirror:
>Gelonghui, February 11th | Zhejiang Orient Financial Holdings Group (600120.SH) announced the following explanation regarding the recently market-focused "DeepSeek Concept": DeepSeek is a large model under Hangzhou DeepSeek AI Basic Technology Research Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "DeepSeek"). In response to matters of concern in the Capital Markets, the company verified that as of the date of this announcement, the names of companies invested by the fund Sector managed by the company, such as Peking Deep Search Technology Co., Ltd. and Peking Jiuzhang Yunjike Technology Co., Ltd., are quite similar to those of DeepSeek and its affiliated enterprises, but there is no equity investment relationship. The company and the relevant private equity funds managed by the fund Sector have not directly or indirectly invested in DeepSeek.
My understanding is there's local API resellers who provide gateway access to bundle claude/openai with other cheaper PRC models via routing to water down price. The resellers are bulk generating pro accounts / trials i.e. basically 100% subsidized by Anthropic/OpenAI. Resellers also sell for cost or below cost because they're intercepting training data to resell. The economics of PRC token is divorced from Anthropic and OpenAi, i.e. PRC gray market tokens are most "efficient" for shadow trial resellers (who basically pays for disposable sign up sim) and least efficient (as in negative sum) for providers who convert none of the subsidized trial accounts into paying.
This one of those if both country are spying on you, pick the foreign spy since their gov can't touch you. If industrialist from both sides poisoning backyards, pick the one that isn't doing it in near you.
Important to caveat, large cohorts of China got relatively rich... there's still 100s of millions predominantly old who got left behind by modernization. Because countries with pop size of PRC (and India) can specialize in EVERY sector category and still not have enough opportunities to uplift everyone. Where PRC dodged bullet is family planning, i.e. averting 100s of millions of births, but that's 100s of millions additional poor averted, and because poor bias overwhelmingly old and un/der educated, they will die and PRC per capita will converge towards urban high income, i.e. PRC entering high income is mechanically/mathematically determined. Obviously demographics may be issue later, but PRC figured out how to be rich, even if slightly after being old.
India (who also tried family planning) utterly fucked in this regard, i.e. trending towards 1.8B people, ignoring all the things PRC did that India didn't. PRC 1.4b trending towards 400m old/poor vs 1000m young/rich. Indian trending towards 1400m old/young poor, 400m young/rich. Can't craw out of per capital poverty with that composition, not within this century, and also very different configuration of constituents to govern, i.e. volatility is going to go way up when more than half of country is young and poor... worse if young educated and poor.
As for why. Democracy sucks at development.
Not a single >10m country has gone from developing to reasonably developed on democratic system. The few <10m countries basically have some resource or geopolitical favourable position where narrow specialization or limited sponsorship from hegemon = enough $$$ to uplift per capita. Political economy is as soft as and inexact as science can be, but democracy being the worst form of gov for developing countries (not except all others) is overwhelmingly clear.
If you're a poor country, hope you have competent authoritarian leadership, bandwagon with hegemons (or rather do not trigger ire of hegemons) or do not get on bad side of hegemon, do some land reforms, sort out your problematic minorities, break eggs before they become problems. It will be bloody but it may pay off, alternative is generations trapped in poverty that accumulates more averted deaths than if you just slapped country into shape in the first place. Don't fall for democratic promotion = aka political elite capture, that will also happen under incompetent autocrats but will 100% happen in democratic system.
It's not the recording that matters, it's the enforcement. In PRC, you get your jaywalking mugshot on the intersection jumbotron, that social humiliation is enough to get people in line and establish public order. I wager shameless (individualistic) Americans would troll such methods, i.e. it would be counter productive in US cultural contexts... which is bleak because it means would need even harsher big brother enforcement methods to deter. Considering Chinese aunties fisty cuff with cops on the street, in US they'd get ventilated - the kind of shenanigans US LE would have to pull to enforce best behavior compliance is going to be much more violent.
The recording enables the enforcement. It's of the nature of "If you see something, say something" - blah blah "if you're innocent you have nothing to fear" blah blah.
Presumption of innocence runs counter to general surveillance, in a broad sense.
The secret is shame. You can enforce behavior through shame culture slowly (JP) or rapidly with technology, half the reason PRC cleaned up fast is people didn't want their faces plastered on misdemeanour jumbotron. Probably won't work if you live in a shameless society where social humiliation has little or even opposite effect.
reply