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Exactly! If this post had been written 20 years ago it would have started with

Internet, handheld computers, electric cars...The problem is the same dudes.

Putting beanie babies in with Quantum Computing and Nuclear Power completely ignores the potential life changing elements of some technologies, even if they don't work.

Oh, and smart glasses he put in there, so he'll be eating his words in 2 years.


No-one thought the internet was a failed technology in 2006. It was a vital tool by then.

Handheld computers were an expanding market, dominated by Blackberry.

EVs were an immature technology but hybrids like the Prius were selling.


You may remember this video featuring Facebook with a ridiculously high $15B valuation, Skype, YouTube and other failures: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=I6IQ_FOCE6I

No, never seen it. Why would I?

There is a huge difference between claiming that there is an investment bubble in an industry and some companies are overvalued and that the technology is a failure. Someone might well think that Tesla is very overvalued, but that EVs are successful. If someone thinks there is a house price bubble that does not mean that they think houses are a failed technology.


This YouTube link proves that YouTube is a failure?

Have you seen the video?

OP here. If you're interested, here are my thoughts on Google Glass from 12 years ago.

https://shkspr.mobi/blog/2014/04/quick-thoughts-on-google-gl...

I am looking forward to 2028 matching the hype of 2014.


This ignores the profitability of business class for the airlines, and makes the assumption that more seats on a plane means all of those seats will be sold.

This seems about the equivalent of "Coca-cola knew sugar was bad, but they put it in their drink anyway!"

Am I missing something?

Is this more like tabacco for some reason? Why do we accept sugar and not tabacco?


> Why do we accept sugar and not tabacco?

Because sugar has good lobby. Just like the "Mount of Sugar".


As a Canadian, we don't think of travelling to the US as "international travel". It's more like going to a friends house.

I remember flying Alaska Airlines out of SFO and when I went to check-in at the International Terminal, the gate agent said "Canada isn't International" and looked at me like I was the dumbest human on the planet.

Either she was seeing Trump's future, or....


I think the bigger point you are making is that the 50 year old is also more likely to have developed cancer.

Maybe a full body MRI once a decade is fine until your 30s, then once every 5 years until 50, then once ever 2 years beyond 50.

The test should scale with the probability of cancer.


They were not talking about MRI, there is a significant difference (purported).

They were not talking about MRI, there is a significant difference.

I'm the founder of neurotech/sleeptech company https://affectablesleep.com, and this post shows the major issue with current wellness device regulation.

I believe there was some good that came from last months decision to be more open to what apps and data can say without going through huge regulatory processes (though because we apply auditory stimulation, this doesn't apply to us), however, there should be at least regulatory requirements for data security.

We've developed all of our algorithms and processing to happen on device, which is required anyway due to the latency which would result from bluetooth connections, but even the data sent to the server is all encrypted. I'd think that would be the basics. How do you trust a company with monitoring, and apparently providing stimulation, if they don't take these simple steps?


This is what we were building in 2018 with Ayvri, starting from 3d tiles with the aim of building a real-world view by using AI to essentailly re-paint and add detail to what was essentially a high-resolution and faster loading Google Earth (for outside cities, we didn't have building data).

We saw a very diverse group of users, the common uses was paragliders, gliders, and pilots who wanted to view their or other peoples flights. Ultramarathons, mountain bike and some road-races where it provided an interactive way to visualize the course from any angle and distance. Transportation infrastructure to display train routes to be built. The list goes on.


Google is transitioning from ChromeOS to desktop Android by 2028.


I don't understand who this is for?

How many software engineers are also cinematographers or directors?

I know that AI will democratize these roles and everyone can be a director, but why does it make sense to use JSX as the means to do that? It would require people to learn a new skill.

There must be a better abstraction for creating video that provides the granularity of providing direction to individual objects in a scene that doesn't require someone to understand JSX.


> I don't understand who this is for?

I think the answer is in the tagline: AI Agent writes JSX, you get videos.

Sounds like a decent approach for today. LLMs are overtrained on JSX (Claude in particular, due to Artifacts feature IIRC being originally based on React), which makes them particularly good at translating from natural language to JSX, and that in turns makes JSX a decent choice for a structured description format.

JSX is just ugly Lisp anyway, so it's not half bad a choice for something that's structured, general-purpose, flexible and well-supported by tooling.

In other words:

[You]--natural language-->[LLM]--JSX-->[Vagrai]-->Video


I have no idea how many Iranians have been involved in the protests, but it seems like they're getting past the 3.5% number as well..


Peaceful protests do not work when the government that you are opposing shoots protesters in the street and/or jails & tortures them. Didn’t work so well in Syria either. Only the government has guns in Iran and they’d rather rule over a hellish cesspool of their own countrymen starving and drying than lose power.


And quite relevantly to the analogy, in Iran, the regime controls most of the economic links to the outside world, including the ability to convert the rial to dollars or euros.


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