But then, if it IS the actual criminal, he's aware that the police are onto him and he's gone. If I knew for certain that A) I'd committed a crime and B) the police were indeed looking for me, I wouldn't be at my home address. Nor any other address they might be aware of my presence.
So you would give up your home in exchange for the proceeds from a small burglary?
I would just expect some Bayesian reasoning, and "has a home at a reasonably expensive address" and "has a car" and "has MIT ID" would presumably rank quite highly as factors? Unless "is black" ranks so high that it dwarfs all other factors.
How are we defining "home" here? Does the typical small-time burglar own a house? Does he care about skipping out on a lease? Does he even HAVE a lease or is has he been sleeping on the couches of 'friends?' If I'm committing a small burglary, I doubt I'm very attached to my current address.
Back to this story: you have to check out whomever matches the description and is nearby. The only thing that the police needed to do in this situation was to not make it a situation. Reaching for that gun was The Wrong Thing To Do because this guy was cooperating.
"If I'm committing a small burglary, I doubt I'm very attached to my current address."
That is exactly what I am saying. If he has a solid address, it is unlikely that he is a small time burglar.
Not sure how IDs work in the US. In Germany you have to register with the police when you move and you are supposed to carry your ID at all times. Of course there is no guarantee that people keep their ID up to date. Then again, I suppose if mail to the old address would be failing it could be marked in the computer, easy to check for the police.
They don't know that you aren't a serial killer either. Should they surround your house, just in case?
I think you need to multiply P(is a criminal) with <severity of the crime>. If they suspect somebody of being a serial killer, more scrutiny seems appropriate than if they suspect a small time burglar.
Do I match the description of a serial killer? If I do, then perhaps a visit to my house is warranted. And if I'm a serial killer, and, depending on the method of killing, perhaps they have to believe that I'm armed to the teeth. Coming to pick me up could be dangerous for them. Now, their measured response involves an unannounced SWAT.
I don't see "Serial Killer" levels of scrutiny in this story. I see the right amount of scrutiny, but with a precursor of a cop getting his gun hand ready in a situation that doesn't call for it.
