2008 was arguably the biggest market crash since 1929, it was nearly a 50% drop in less than a year. 1973-74 and 2000-2003 were nearly as bad over longer periods, but nothing else comes close.
Seidel literally got a market crash that occurs maybe once every 25 to 50 years and still couldn't win this bet. If he got two crashes he'd still lose because his hedge funds are rowing backwards 4% a year due to high fees.
I think you also missed a part of my point, which is that if you're not warren buffet or a programmer that has a steady six figure job, employment can be procyclical. You can more easily get jobs and pay hikes when the market is up, so your ability to invest peaks during the tops of the cycle, and you are at risk of things like unemployment at the bottom of the cycle.
Yeah hedge funds suck because they have high fees, but there's this Buffet-worshipping 'common man' implication that 'common man' should not be jealous of the rich man that has access to hedge funds because the S&P is just as good.
Seidel literally got a market crash that occurs maybe once every 25 to 50 years and still couldn't win this bet. If he got two crashes he'd still lose because his hedge funds are rowing backwards 4% a year due to high fees.