My thoughts on AGI (at least in the sense of being indistinguishable from interaction with a human) are the same as my thoughts on extraterrestrial life: I'll believe it only when I see it (or at least when provided with proof that the mechanism is understood). This extrapolation on a sample size of one is something I don't understand. How is the fact that machine learning can do specific stuff better than humans different in principle than the fact that a hand calculator can do some specific stuff better than humans? On what evidence can we extrapolate from this to AGI?
We haven't found life outside this planet, and we haven't created life in a lab, therefore n=1 for assessing probability of life outside earth (which means we can't calculate a probability for this yet). Likewise, we haven't created anything remotely like animal intelligence (let alone human) and we have no good theory regarding how it works, so n=1 for existing forms of general intelligence.
Note that I'm not saying there can be no extraterrestrial life or that we will never develop AGI, just that I haven't seen any evidence at this point in time that any opinions for or against their possibility are anything more than baseless speculation.
"To train the system in a new domain, we use real-time supervised training. This is comparable to the training practices of many disciplines, where an instructor supervises a student as they are doing their job, providing guidance as needed, and making sure that the task is performed at the instructor’s level of quality. In the Duplex system, experienced operators act as the instructors. By monitoring the system as it makes phone calls in a new domain, they can affect the behavior of the system in real time as needed. This continues until the system performs at the desired quality level, at which point the supervision stops and the system can make calls autonomously." --
We haven't found life outside this planet, and we haven't created life in a lab, therefore n=1 for assessing probability of life outside earth (which means we can't calculate a probability for this yet). Likewise, we haven't created anything remotely like animal intelligence (let alone human) and we have no good theory regarding how it works, so n=1 for existing forms of general intelligence.
Note that I'm not saying there can be no extraterrestrial life or that we will never develop AGI, just that I haven't seen any evidence at this point in time that any opinions for or against their possibility are anything more than baseless speculation.