I think directed-energy ASAT weapons will be deployable around that time frame, so I wouldn't bet on the resiliency of LEO/MEO constellations there.

You're going to need a lot of ASAT firepower to put a dent in StarLink's constellation (thousands of minisats).

And thus lasers, which will presumably have a far higher sustained fire rate / magazine depth than ASAT-capable missiles. (And 100kW-class lasers aren't science fiction anymore, since the US Navy is deploying them for testing)