* Rise of the EU as global superpower with European army taking over all functions of NATO except strategic defense (nuclear/space). All European countries except ex-USSR and England but including Scotland are members of EU.
* Rise of Africa as a big consumer market. Green belt finished, major improvements in agriculture and infrastructure help to combat famine. Ethiopia replaces South Africa as economic leader on the continent.
* Green wave in India: environmental topics in the spotlight of political life, but no significant change yet. Pollution will continue killing millions every year.
* Political stagnation in USA, green new deal won’t happen, but coastal states will drive the progress.
* Environmental standards are mentioned in all trade deals, but not yet enforced with sanctions.
Technology:
* Digital is no longer the field where most of the interesting things will happen. No quantum computing on mass-market, heavy regulation of the Internet everywhere with prohibitive costs for new startups.
* Proteins from plants, bacteria and insects will see same growth as solar and wind in 2010s. Agriculture and diets is the new IT.
* Solar and wind are big but not dominant, hidden costs become visible. There will be no nuclear renaissance. No breakthrough in fusion. Energy becomes hard again, focus shifts from generation and storage to transmission.
* Self-driving cars won’t be on the roads yet, but there will be almost no cars in European and Chinese cities. AI will run public transportation grid.
* Significant progress in recycling and cleaning the oceans from plastic. Europe, USA and China will remove more plastic from water than put there.
* Steady progress in space technology but no sci-fi level achievements. SpaceX will see some competition in reusable rockets. People will return to the Moon.
> * Digital is no longer the field where most of the interesting things will happen. No quantum computing on mass-market, heavy regulation of the Internet everywhere with prohibitive costs for new startups.
Every country seems to be trying out kill-switch for the internet.
1. The EU needs at-least a decade to finish transforming form an economic block that explicitly wasn't supposed to have the power it does into a true federal system. Lots of cracks are starting to show like Belgium suspending the Spanish arrest warrant for Catalonia separatists elected to parliament. No one except France and Germany, who both make weapons, wants to spend the money on an EU army. I actually predict the EU will loose at-least one current member nation, after the UK, but may finish the decade with more than it starts with.
2. 10 years it too short of a timeframe. Africa will largely be in the same place overall with several select countries clawing their way out of poverty.
3. Unlikely basic sanitation is too lacking for something much more abstract to take the focus yet maybe at the end of the decade if they make major progress on other issue we might see the start of a focus on it.
4. I could see this
5. In the vaguest of terms.
6. I agree between California's new laws and rhetoric of the Democratic candidates leads me to believe they will be pushing very hard for more and more regulation.
7. I can see a spike and a very slow tail growth but nothing close to a quick transition.
8. California has already been forced to pay other states to take their power on sunny/windy days we are already starting to see the issues with them.
9. Europe yes the've been on this trend for a while now but China no way it too much of a status symbol right now.
Because car-free city is the future and of 3 technology leaders only USA will fail to develop sufficiently good public transport in the next decade. It is the only culture so deeply attached to cars and individual houses that it will be always behind others in urbanization.
It may well be, but do you realistically believe this will happen in 10-years and be wild spread across Europe?
Many people in Europe depend in cars to commute.
I was surprised by your previous comment as I frankly would never see it happening.
Having said that, I did read just yesterday about Barcelona planning something similar, with a pilot in one part of the city. All cars are forbidden and artefacts are put on the street to encourage play for kids etc. Even there, members of the local community are against it ...
I run a bike and scooter sharing company in Europe. We see that plans like this are in the making in most big european cities. Regulation on air quality is a huge driver, as officials may be personally held responsible if nothing is done.
The example you mention in Barcelona is called the SuperBlock. The first one was Poblenou. Although it's true it was first met with fierce opposition, it is now a massive success, and local communities are not against it at all:
When the first superblock was introduced in 2017 in Poblenou, in the north of the city, it was met with opposition by car owners and also those who claimed it would be ruinous to local business.
However, opposition has faded as residents have begun to enjoy the benefits of a traffic-free neighbourhood. There are also 30% more local businesses than previously and the area has seen a significant increase in the numbers of people making journeys on foot or cycling.
It’s already happening everywhere in Europe. In Berlin where I live district authorities are already experimenting with car-free zones and I can hardly remember a situation where personal or rented car would be necessary. The main reason for it is the air pollution, which will continue to drive this change until early 2030s, when the share of electric cars will be big enough.
* Rise of the EU as global superpower with European army taking over all functions of NATO except strategic defense (nuclear/space). All European countries except ex-USSR and England but including Scotland are members of EU.
* Rise of Africa as a big consumer market. Green belt finished, major improvements in agriculture and infrastructure help to combat famine. Ethiopia replaces South Africa as economic leader on the continent.
* Green wave in India: environmental topics in the spotlight of political life, but no significant change yet. Pollution will continue killing millions every year.
* Political stagnation in USA, green new deal won’t happen, but coastal states will drive the progress.
* Environmental standards are mentioned in all trade deals, but not yet enforced with sanctions.
Technology:
* Digital is no longer the field where most of the interesting things will happen. No quantum computing on mass-market, heavy regulation of the Internet everywhere with prohibitive costs for new startups.
* Proteins from plants, bacteria and insects will see same growth as solar and wind in 2010s. Agriculture and diets is the new IT.
* Solar and wind are big but not dominant, hidden costs become visible. There will be no nuclear renaissance. No breakthrough in fusion. Energy becomes hard again, focus shifts from generation and storage to transmission.
* Self-driving cars won’t be on the roads yet, but there will be almost no cars in European and Chinese cities. AI will run public transportation grid.
* Significant progress in recycling and cleaning the oceans from plastic. Europe, USA and China will remove more plastic from water than put there.
* Steady progress in space technology but no sci-fi level achievements. SpaceX will see some competition in reusable rockets. People will return to the Moon.