Some Iranians were definitely involved since who ever did it had to use at least some local assets.
Could the Iranian state be responsible for this? Possibly but not particularly likely, could it been an internal conflict within the IRGC or between the IRGC and the local criminal underground (yes this is a thing, the IRGC often supplements it’s income by running criminal enterprises in the region) a bit more likely but still less likely than a combined western effort to take him out.
I don’t think Israel could or well would pull this off alone, by all accounts whilst Israel does operate a very large humint network in Iran much larger than the US ever managed to set up (in fact by published accounts, Israel is the one who’ve always provided the human element in joint operations) they still heavily rely on US intelligence and operational support.
Before JCPOA was signed the “rumor” was that one of the sticks and or plan B was a pretty extensive plan to take out quite a few very high value Iranian targets of the map and that plan didn’t include buildings but rather was a direct threat to essentially take out anyone of any importance especially in the IRGC.
This seems to be the second and quite likely last at least for a while (due to the US elections result) operational use of that “backup plan”.
As far as conspiracies go or at least corruption I would put KSA pressuring Trump to do something before he leaves office in exchange for financial favors over anything else.
Could the Iranian state be responsible for this? Possibly but not particularly likely, could it been an internal conflict within the IRGC or between the IRGC and the local criminal underground (yes this is a thing, the IRGC often supplements it’s income by running criminal enterprises in the region) a bit more likely but still less likely than a combined western effort to take him out.
I don’t think Israel could or well would pull this off alone, by all accounts whilst Israel does operate a very large humint network in Iran much larger than the US ever managed to set up (in fact by published accounts, Israel is the one who’ve always provided the human element in joint operations) they still heavily rely on US intelligence and operational support.
Before JCPOA was signed the “rumor” was that one of the sticks and or plan B was a pretty extensive plan to take out quite a few very high value Iranian targets of the map and that plan didn’t include buildings but rather was a direct threat to essentially take out anyone of any importance especially in the IRGC.
This seems to be the second and quite likely last at least for a while (due to the US elections result) operational use of that “backup plan”.
As far as conspiracies go or at least corruption I would put KSA pressuring Trump to do something before he leaves office in exchange for financial favors over anything else.