Thanks for the great comment, I'd like to tag something on here. There's absolutely a deeper history here that goes beyond the DTCC. I've written about it earlier, but sadly it's arcane and arcane things get little love,
I have been studying Real-Time Gross Settlement systems for the past two months, including questions of liquidity in settlement systems. The question at the heart of the banking system is quite simple, if banks take capital from customers and use it to provide debt to others, then how much money should they keep on hand for their customers' withdrawals and transfers?
This question is hard to answer. As there is a conflict between what the bank does (i.e. provide debt), and how it is supposed to provide it (by taking savings etc.). Everything else, from central banks "offering cheap liquidity" is an add on. They are mechanisms that allow - for example, a bank to easily borrow this money so that they can cancel it out/repay it from transactions coming into their banks.
What makes it all borked is that you can't trust bankers with their grandmas. If there is a flaw, they will exploit it. Every major change has led to an exploit. E.g. In 1918, the American Government introduced the Leased Wire System that used the telegraphs and a network of 12 Reserves to allow banks to transct with each other across CONUS. It reduced the average time for cheques to be cashed in at banks across the country from 5.4 days in 1912 to just 2.4 days. Theoretically, this reduced the risk taken by banks when they transacted with unknown banks across the country, with the Government acting as the escrow. It catalysed innovation and led to an explosion of financial services across the young country.
The system was supposed to be foolproof by reducing the time "credit" was needed to make transactions. Essentially, until one bank sent the money and the other got it, they were operating on a system of credit. And they would "net" the books at the end of the day/week to physically transfer assets. FedWire (Leased Wire System) made everyone feel safe by sending notes of the transactions across great distances. But the netting still took time. All it took was one bank to fall behind on current obligations to other banks for all of the banks to collapse, leading to the Great Depression.
Important people got together and made rule changes to fix the problem. But then they innovated again. The Federal Reserve started making Automatic Clearing Houses (ACHs) and Remote Check Processing Centres (RCPCs) to make settlement faster, starting in the 60s and precipitating in 1972. This made settlement faster therefore safer. And it led to great financial innovation. The magic of computers and innovation meant that people could use these same systems to transact across the world!
Until in 1974, when the German lender Herstatt collapsed due foreign exchange investments based in the Dollar, which caused the bank to fail to meet its settlement obligations...
> That day, a number of banks had released payment of Deutsche Marks (DEM) to Herstatt in Frankfurt in exchange for US dollars (USD) that were to be delivered in New York. The bank was closed at 16:30 German time, which was 10:30 New York time. Because of time zone differences, Herstatt ceased operations between the times of the respective payments. The counterparty banks did not receive their USD payments
In response, important people got together and made rule changes and a new system called the Bank for International Settlements. Under the new systems, more computers were added and were linked together with the aim of reducing settlement time... You can see where this is going.
This is a simplified history. But the history of banking is the history of doing settlement while managing liquidity and counter-party risk.
Like it or not, we've hit a wall here because these systems were never designed for such circumstances. Perhaps it's time for the important people to get together again?
Shameless plug... Having worked on such systems, I recently wrote an article explaining real-time payment systems, some of which use real-time gross settlement:
Market markers and other institutional participants don’t want instant settlement, as it its a liquidity risk. It’s why you’ll see T+2 go to end of day settlement eventually (imho), but will never see real time settlement from centralized finance. Decentralized finance would improve upon this, with the trade off of having a low volume ceiling (due to network transaction limitations).
The problem with this position is that it's false. I welcome corrections, but there is a wealth of literature on this topic. For the past two to three decades there has been a small cottage industry of research in Liquidity Savings Mechanisms that are designed to prevent this scenario through clever system design.
These mechanisms have been evaluated, simulated, and tested by central banks at greater volumes than DTCC's system. The difference here is in orders of magnitude. The Feds handle $2+Tn./day. They handle $500Bn/day at most. If the Feds can introduce these systems and maintain liquidity, then what reasoning does DTCC have?
I am loathe to cast aspersions, but the aspersion I'm casting here is that they're dragging their feet, as it would effectively end an entire sub-sector of the industry. Or, at the very least, substantially re-order it. This inefficiency is someone's margin and profit.
Maybe this is an attempt to force that change to be faster? It really should be faster today, clearing sped up.
The lag for bank account transactions makes sense to wait to make sure money is there and no fraud. However, once money is in an account at an approved FDIC/SIPC insured (preferably both, Robinhood is only SIPC) brokerage it should be much faster, at least up to the FDIC/SIPC limits. There is really no reason why it shouldn't except to help market makers have the upper hand.
This could be the root of what may need to change or was desired to change with this black swan event.
Faster settlement means less time to discover and correct mistakes.
At a high level, nobody really likes trades being broken, but it's kind of a necessary "evil" that helps stabilize the entire system.
Let's say settlement happens in one minute, one morning a pension fund fat-fingers a price and loses 10 million USD to some student in her dorm room. That afternoon, the student then donates 1 million USD to an orphanage, pays off her grandparents' mortgage, buys 1 million USD worth of municipal bonds to finance a new baseball stadium, and buys several million USD in long-dated ETF call options. Some market-maker delta-hedges those options by buying the ETF. In response to the price move generated in the ETF, a large institution buys a basket of stocks and participates in the creation process with the ETF's issuer.
Now, what happens when the fat-finger is discovered and disputed? Too many things have changed for the SEC to break all of the trades and other transactions after the settlement. The student no longer has enough money to make the pension fund whole (even if everyone involved could agree that the most fair thing to do would be to limit the student to 100k profit and transfer the rest back to the pension), so I guess they're stuck with the pensioners having to live with that 10 million USD loss. "Oops, next time, make sure your pension hires a more careful trader, I hope you've learned your lesson" isn't very helpful advice to a retiree who's now out on the street.
> "Oops, next time, make sure your pension hires a more careful trader, I hope you've learned your lesson" isn't very helpful advice to a retiree who's now out on the street.
It's really not, isn't it? Almost like the dependency on human carefulness compromises the integrity of the whole system.
We've seen plenty of trading problems due to direct human error, and we've seen plenty of trading problems due to software bugs.
If we got rid of breaking trades, it would presumably force everyone to use carefully specified systems and use avionics-like development practices. Maybe we'd even see machine-checked proofs being compiled to programs and smart contracts via the Curry-Howard correspondence. Long-term, it would probably be good. In the shot term, lots of fallible counterparties going bankrupt would be very destabilizing to the system.
"make sure there is no fraud" takes a LOOOONG time.
It is the reason why a car bought from a dealer drives around without plates for a month. That's how long it takes the dealer to be totally sure the payment wasn't fraudulent.
While cash is the settlement vehicle of choice for dealer-less used car sales, certified checks (only legally issued by the federal bank) are preferred or even mandated for in-person government (surplus) auctions.
If you talk to the dealer in advance, to make sure they know about these certified checks, I'd expect them (over here, in DE) to hand you the title in direct exchange for the check, within an hour of you first setting foot on to the lot (assuming you called in advance so they have time for you and the car you want).
What you say about certified checks is, in theory, possible here. In practice the sales drones who handle these transactions have never heard of this and will treat you like you're trying to scam them out of a car somehow.
Also the title is never physically at the location where the car is sold from; the processing of titles for dealers has been outsourced to a handful of large companies who effectively act as warehouses for the physical title documents. Even if the sales drone wanted to go along and had enough clout to make it happen, it would still take an overnight-shipping delay to get the title to the buyer.
I know, it's kinda sad, tbh. Get yourself a taste of SEPA to see what you could have/use instead of ACH.
Nice to hear. And yeah, that's why I mentioned needing to call ahead to make sure that someone who can legally sign the contract is gonna be there and has sufficient understanding of how these certified checks look like/work.
Fair. Is that only for new cars, or does that include (independent) used car dealerships?
> A substantial amount of trades in the market are executed by liquidity providers that provide efficient two-sided
markets. These important trading firms trade on both sides of the market and are largely risk flat at the end of the
day. Real-time settlement would require these liquidity providers to have significant sums of capital and securities
on hand to make trade-for-trade deliveries.
The current infrastructure relies on the efficiencies of trade netting to accommodate substantial amounts of trades.
Wholesale market-making is important to the infrastructure as it provides the capital and balance sheets to back
customer trading. Significantly increasing those capital requirements by requiring pre-funding of all trades without the
benefit of recognizing the offsetting trades would substantially increase the costs of trade execution to the end user.
Real-time settlement could also introduce operational inefficiencies. In a typical low-volatility trading day, NSCC
and DTC process over one million shares per second on average, valued at over $16 million. During peak trading
hours, such as market open and close, this number spikes to over 300 million shares per second, valued at over
$25 billion. Settling these amounts throughout the day in real-time would introduce substantial financial and
operational risks to the equity markets.
Accelerated settlement that abandons the significant capital and operational efficiencies gained through
centralized multilateral netting would be a step backward for the world’s most liquid markets. Striking a balance
between the capital efficiencies of netting and the risk mitigation benefits of moving settlement closer to trade date
should be the goal of the industry.
Thanks! Replacing market makers seems difficult.
Edit: Why the downvotes? I'm quoting the article for easy access.
> Significantly increasing those capital requirements by requiring pre-funding of all trades without the benefit of recognizing the offsetting trades would substantially increase the costs of trade execution to the end user.
I don't see how this follows, if the trades are settled faster? Wouldn't you have to keep less capital on hand at any given time if you're settling trades faster? I'm clearly missing something, not sure what.
You aren't, there are netting, batching, and matching algorithms that have been developed for larger systems. The Feds, who process $2Tn.+/day, BoE, ECB etc have found these systems to hold up through trials, simulations, and implementations. DTCC, on the other hand, handles $500Bn.
I'm not an expert but how I read it is: market makers currently can sell a stock without owning it. All is well as long as they buy it back by the end of the day as settlement takes 2 more days.
If settlement was instantaneous then the market makers would have to already own a bunch of the stock in order to sell any. Owning stock requires capital. Similarly if they wanted to buy more stock they'd need cash on hand.
Would they though? If settlement was instantaneous for market makers, then obviously settlement with the brokerages would also have to be instantaneous. Then it's no longer an issue of verifying anything, the risk of proving ownership would fall squarely on the brokerages or whoever is initiating the trade with the market maker in the first place.
Most defi is on Ethereum, which is making large scaling improvements. Zkrollups right now do several thousand tx/sec without security compromises, and data sharding will expand that by 23X in about a year. This is still probably a low volume ceiling by some definitions, but it's at least in the ballpark of major systems like the VISA network and NASDAQ trades.
Further down the road, more efficient data witnesses give another 10X. Also, the power of individual nodes affects both the number of shards and the capacity of individual shards, so future scaling is the square of whatever Moore's Law has left to give us.
I have been studying Real-Time Gross Settlement systems for the past two months, including questions of liquidity in settlement systems. The question at the heart of the banking system is quite simple, if banks take capital from customers and use it to provide debt to others, then how much money should they keep on hand for their customers' withdrawals and transfers?
This question is hard to answer. As there is a conflict between what the bank does (i.e. provide debt), and how it is supposed to provide it (by taking savings etc.). Everything else, from central banks "offering cheap liquidity" is an add on. They are mechanisms that allow - for example, a bank to easily borrow this money so that they can cancel it out/repay it from transactions coming into their banks.
What makes it all borked is that you can't trust bankers with their grandmas. If there is a flaw, they will exploit it. Every major change has led to an exploit. E.g. In 1918, the American Government introduced the Leased Wire System that used the telegraphs and a network of 12 Reserves to allow banks to transct with each other across CONUS. It reduced the average time for cheques to be cashed in at banks across the country from 5.4 days in 1912 to just 2.4 days. Theoretically, this reduced the risk taken by banks when they transacted with unknown banks across the country, with the Government acting as the escrow. It catalysed innovation and led to an explosion of financial services across the young country.
The system was supposed to be foolproof by reducing the time "credit" was needed to make transactions. Essentially, until one bank sent the money and the other got it, they were operating on a system of credit. And they would "net" the books at the end of the day/week to physically transfer assets. FedWire (Leased Wire System) made everyone feel safe by sending notes of the transactions across great distances. But the netting still took time. All it took was one bank to fall behind on current obligations to other banks for all of the banks to collapse, leading to the Great Depression.
Important people got together and made rule changes to fix the problem. But then they innovated again. The Federal Reserve started making Automatic Clearing Houses (ACHs) and Remote Check Processing Centres (RCPCs) to make settlement faster, starting in the 60s and precipitating in 1972. This made settlement faster therefore safer. And it led to great financial innovation. The magic of computers and innovation meant that people could use these same systems to transact across the world!
Until in 1974, when the German lender Herstatt collapsed due foreign exchange investments based in the Dollar, which caused the bank to fail to meet its settlement obligations...
> That day, a number of banks had released payment of Deutsche Marks (DEM) to Herstatt in Frankfurt in exchange for US dollars (USD) that were to be delivered in New York. The bank was closed at 16:30 German time, which was 10:30 New York time. Because of time zone differences, Herstatt ceased operations between the times of the respective payments. The counterparty banks did not receive their USD payments
In response, important people got together and made rule changes and a new system called the Bank for International Settlements. Under the new systems, more computers were added and were linked together with the aim of reducing settlement time... You can see where this is going.
This is a simplified history. But the history of banking is the history of doing settlement while managing liquidity and counter-party risk.
Like it or not, we've hit a wall here because these systems were never designed for such circumstances. Perhaps it's time for the important people to get together again?
Further reading,
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/blog/2020/09/check-processing-...
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/bernanke201...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Settlement_risk