then spamming will become unprofitible. Then it will rapidly disappear.
Unlikely. Spamming has already been less and less profitable over the years margin-wise to the point that for many spammers, it is actually not profitable. Yet, for every spammer that drops it because it is no longer profitable, another dozen n00bs join the trade.
The idea of killing a few key companies/guys will significantly lower spam is a sexy idea but little else, IMO. In short-term, getting rid of a key component that kills a third of spam may help. But it doesn't take a long time for someone else to fill in those shoes using different technologies/products/banks.
I actually dabbled in this industry for a little bit during my teenage years so I have some insights though some of it is obviously outdated. The only thing I am still confident of is that there are more spammers today and margins are lower than when I was messin with it.
Based on your personal experience, you may well know more about this industry than I do. But I certainly had the impression that, while spamming is LESS profitable today, that it still had a net-positive income flow. This impression came from sources like this: http://www.icsi.berkeley.edu/pubs/networking/2008-ccs-spamal... (admittedly, 3 years old).
A brief dip into unprofitability will not destroy the industry because (as you say) another dozen n00bs will join. But I believe that an extended period (say, a year or two) might kill it off -- the "n00bs" could not operate without the extensive infrastructure of tools and those WOULD be damaged or destroyed by unprofitibility.
Unlikely. Spamming has already been less and less profitable over the years margin-wise to the point that for many spammers, it is actually not profitable. Yet, for every spammer that drops it because it is no longer profitable, another dozen n00bs join the trade.
The idea of killing a few key companies/guys will significantly lower spam is a sexy idea but little else, IMO. In short-term, getting rid of a key component that kills a third of spam may help. But it doesn't take a long time for someone else to fill in those shoes using different technologies/products/banks.
I actually dabbled in this industry for a little bit during my teenage years so I have some insights though some of it is obviously outdated. The only thing I am still confident of is that there are more spammers today and margins are lower than when I was messin with it.