I think this is already happening. There's credible evidence that the Apple CEO, Tim Cook, has been essentially replaced by a Siri-driven clone over the last 7 months. They march the real guy out when needed, but if you watch closely when they do, it's obvious he's under duress reading lines prepared by an AI. His testimony in the Epic lawsuit for example. They'll probably cite how seriously he and the company take 'privacy' to help normalize his withdrawal from the public space in the coming years.
I think you’re looking at the problem the wrong way. This provides less strong engineering talent with more leverage. The CEO (which could be you!) gets closer to being a CTO with less experience and context necessary (recall businesses that run on old janky codebases or no code platforms; they don’t have to be elegant, they simply have to work).
It all boils down to who is capturing the value for the effort and time expended. If a mediocre software engineer can compete against senior engineers with such augmentation, that seems like a win. Less time on learning language incantations, more time spent delivering value to those who will pay for it.
> Just look at what your average person is able to accomplish with Excel.
Approximately nothing.
The average knowledge worker somewhat more, but lots of them are at the level of “I can consume a pivot table someone else set up”.
Sure, there are highly-productive, highly-skilled excel users that aren't traditional developers that can build great things, but they aren’t “your average person”.
Yes, Excel “runs the world”, and in most organizations, you’ll find a fairly narrow slice of Excel power users that build and maintain the Excel that “runs the world”.
We may not call them developers or programmers (or we might; I’ve been one of them as a fraction of my job at different times, both as a “fiscal analyst” by working title and as a “programmer analyst” by title), but effectively that's what they are, developers using (and possibly exclusively comfortable with) Excel as a platform.
Usually I agree but I think Nat's comment here makes perfect sense and isn't just some PR buzzword stew. Tools like these are basically a faster version of searching stack overflow. You could have suggested that things like github and stack overflow would replace programmers since you could just copy and paste snipits to write your code.
And sure, we do now have tools like square space which fully automate making a basic business landing page and online store. But the bar has been raised and we now have far more complex websites without developer resources being wasted on making web stores.
Perhaps he should go easy on the euphemisms then and show respect for the developers who wrote the corpus of software that this AI is being trained on (perhaps illegally).
