> How many jobs have developers helped displace in business and industry?
How many?
> I don't think it's controversial that we become fair game for that same automation process we've been leading.
This is not correct. A human (developer) displacing another human (business person) is entirely different than a tool (AI bot) replacing a human (developer).
In this case, it is assumed that the global amount of development work is fixed, so that, if AI takes a part of it, the equivalent workforce in terms of developers, will be out of job. Especially in the field of SWE, this is obviously false.
It also needs to be seen what this technology will actually do. SWE is a complex field, way more than typing a few routines. In best case (technologically speaking) this will be an augmentation.
> A human (developer) displacing another human (business person) is entirely different
That's not what is happening though, a few developers replace thousands of business and industry people with automated tools. Say, automated route planning for package delivery, would take many thousands of humans if not for the AI bots that do the job instead.
> SWE is a complex field, way more than typing a few routines. In best case (technologically speaking) this will be an augmentation.
Of course there will always be some jobs for humans to do. Just like there are still jobs for humans loading thread into the automated looms and such.
But your arguments against automation displacing programming jobs ring hollow. People said the same thing about chess playing programs, they would never be able to understand the subtlety or complexity like a human could.
> That's not what is happening though, a few developers replace thousands of business and industry people with automated tools. Say, automated route planning for package delivery, would take many thousands of humans if not for the AI bots that do the job instead.
Without reading and understanding the lump of labour fallacy, it can't be understood the relation between the fallacy and the displacement of jobs. In short, the fallacy is not incompatible with the displacement argument; the difference is in the implications.
> But your arguments against automation displacing programming jobs ring hollow. People said the same thing about chess playing programs, they would never be able to understand the subtlety or complexity like a human could.
Chess is a finite problem, SWE isn't, so they can't be compared.
Nope, before the modern approach to shipping stuff you simply couldn't get many different things unless you were in a big city. There weren't humans doing the route planning, there was no one because it wasn't worth doing at all.
> SWE is a complex field, way more than typing a few routines. In best case (technologically speaking) this will be an augmentation.
If there is a pathway to improving this AI assist efficiency say by restricting the language, methodology, UI paradigm and design principles, it will happen quick due to market incentives. The main reason SWE is complex is it's done manually in myriad subjectively preferred ways.
How many?
> I don't think it's controversial that we become fair game for that same automation process we've been leading.
This is not correct. A human (developer) displacing another human (business person) is entirely different than a tool (AI bot) replacing a human (developer).
Regardless, this is the Lump of Labour fallacy (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lump_of_labour_fallacy).
In this case, it is assumed that the global amount of development work is fixed, so that, if AI takes a part of it, the equivalent workforce in terms of developers, will be out of job. Especially in the field of SWE, this is obviously false.
It also needs to be seen what this technology will actually do. SWE is a complex field, way more than typing a few routines. In best case (technologically speaking) this will be an augmentation.