Your question was what the impact of Covid on population (and hence climate) might be. As I said, it is minimal, effectively nonexistant.
To date, 4 million deaths have been reported. There's been substantial undercounting, that total might be low by as much as a factor of ten (at an extreme case), or 40 millions out of a total population of slightly under 8 billions. That's 0.5% of world human population, on the high side.
Most of the dead were elderly, and would likely have died relatively soon regardless, though I don't have figures for estimated life-years lost. A human tragedy in many cases yes. But not something that shifts the baseline on global warming threats.
It's possible that Covid might flare up again, that there will be new (a) new variant(s) with vastly greater infectivity and lethality. I suspect this is unlikely, though the pandemic is likely to be with us for a number of years more. (I'm not an expert, some have suggested another several years, I'm thinking 2--3 is likely, and perhaps as many as 5, given the spectacularly bungled response to date.) Both deaths and lockdowns as well as voluntary withdrawal from economic activity (something that's been seen even in the absence of government-ordered quarantines) ... could extend further.
Consider that that 4.5% might be repeated for another few years, possibly at a greater or lesser extent (e.g., 2.25% or 5%). It's still less than a ten-percent impact on global energy consumption, likely a short-term effect, and would have little impact on long-term energy usage patterns. So long as energy usage is growing (as it has, typically at about 2--3% annually IIRC), it will double given time (in 25--35 years at those rates, using the rule of 72).
I can't give you a hard answer, but can give you the outline parameters of what will effect the response:
- Covid net population effects are effectively nil.
- Energy impacts are measurable, but small and likely temporary.
- The overall impact of COVID-19 on global warming patterns is detectable, but insignificant in the big picture, especially against longer-term trends.
Your question was what the impact of Covid on population (and hence climate) might be. As I said, it is minimal, effectively nonexistant.
To date, 4 million deaths have been reported. There's been substantial undercounting, that total might be low by as much as a factor of ten (at an extreme case), or 40 millions out of a total population of slightly under 8 billions. That's 0.5% of world human population, on the high side.
Most of the dead were elderly, and would likely have died relatively soon regardless, though I don't have figures for estimated life-years lost. A human tragedy in many cases yes. But not something that shifts the baseline on global warming threats.
It's possible that Covid might flare up again, that there will be new (a) new variant(s) with vastly greater infectivity and lethality. I suspect this is unlikely, though the pandemic is likely to be with us for a number of years more. (I'm not an expert, some have suggested another several years, I'm thinking 2--3 is likely, and perhaps as many as 5, given the spectacularly bungled response to date.) Both deaths and lockdowns as well as voluntary withdrawal from economic activity (something that's been seen even in the absence of government-ordered quarantines) ... could extend further.
BP's estimate is that global energy consumption fell by 4.5% in 2020 over what was expected absent Covid. That's the impact so far. https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/stat...
Consider that that 4.5% might be repeated for another few years, possibly at a greater or lesser extent (e.g., 2.25% or 5%). It's still less than a ten-percent impact on global energy consumption, likely a short-term effect, and would have little impact on long-term energy usage patterns. So long as energy usage is growing (as it has, typically at about 2--3% annually IIRC), it will double given time (in 25--35 years at those rates, using the rule of 72).
I can't give you a hard answer, but can give you the outline parameters of what will effect the response:
- Covid net population effects are effectively nil.
- Energy impacts are measurable, but small and likely temporary.
- The overall impact of COVID-19 on global warming patterns is detectable, but insignificant in the big picture, especially against longer-term trends.