The notion that humanity would go extinct from any of this is absolutely unrealistic.
What we are talking about is at worst massive economic damage and loss of life, similar to a very serious war.
Which is horrible, but really not the threat it is made out to be.
Moreover, since these changes happen relatively slowly (compared to bombs and such) much of the loss of life can be mitigated.
So we are talking economic damage and loss of property and infrastructure. Primarily.
Let’s be honest that the most likely course through all this is to adapt to the changing planet. I think that would be so much more refreshing than all the hand wringing.
The instabilities that come from it may very well put us into a full blown dark age, the economic & societal stresses may bring dialogue to a halt, civil & military conflicts most certainly will rise along with it and with it the world would accelerate in the way of catastrophe instead of moving towards adapting or fixing. It won't go down well, you're deluding yourself if you think it won't propagate to the rest of reality. It would be a self-reinforcing loop of tragedies, downward spiraling.
I'm not sure you'd take the same position if you were one of the people who was going to be immediately and directly affected by the change that's coming. I expect at some point some change will happen which does affect you and you won't like it. That moment has already come for some people, spare a thought for them.
Its not that humanity will go extinct with 1.5 degree rise in average temperature. However this will likely directly kill 10s/100s of millions of people and destroy ecosystems and weather patterns that humans depend on, which in turn can create a lot of political instability which could increase the chances of a extinction threatening event (like nuclear war for example). The other path to extinction is the world where we open up some feedback loops which are currently unaware of , runaway heating is an example of that, where each degree of heating causes the rate of heating to rise.
I think there's a reasonable chance of that. We'll figure out different crops to grow, we'll move away from deserts, etc. It may be hard, life expectancy may fall steeply, but we'll adapt largely intact, and then we'll eventually run out of fossil fuels anyway.
But if you look at what's happening in the Great Barrier Reef. It's dying. The ecosystem is dying from the bottom, and nothing on top can survive either. I think this is a very real possibility too.
Oh, I agree with you that humanity probably won't go extinct in the next 100 or maybe even 200 years. We're pretty adaptable.
But if you think the global oceans being completely empty of fish--I mean, nothing larger than your hand is alive--entire continents reverting to first savannah, then desert, and parts currently desert literally becoming uninhabitable, then yeah, sure, it's some economic damage and a small war.
This isn't "adapting to a changing planet". It's more like "adapting to life without the leg I am currently hacking at with a dull rusty blade--oh look, bone! can't quit now...".
>The notion that humanity would go extinct from any of this is absolutely unrealistic
Why not?
With the current societal focus on materialism and luxury, perpetuation of greed and glorification of power, climate need not do much. Wipe out some fraction of the population is all it needs to do.
The rest will be done by us.
The last two people will fire bombs at each other and kill each other for sure.
> The last two people will fire bombs at each other and kill each other for sure.
We've had nuclear bombs for 70 years now and yet we're still alive. This doesn't seem to support this stance. I also don't see everyone on earth rolling over the second it gets a little hotter. Sure some people will but the vast majority will want to survive
What we are talking about is at worst massive economic damage and loss of life, similar to a very serious war.
Which is horrible, but really not the threat it is made out to be.
Moreover, since these changes happen relatively slowly (compared to bombs and such) much of the loss of life can be mitigated.
So we are talking economic damage and loss of property and infrastructure. Primarily.
Let’s be honest that the most likely course through all this is to adapt to the changing planet. I think that would be so much more refreshing than all the hand wringing.