I think your point is valid for e.g. not comparing municipalities.
But comparing countries of tens of millions of people I think is not dominated by noise.
But perhaps a more pointed comparison is the US peak death rate for J&J vaccine recipients was higher than the lowest unvaccinated death rate. That swing happened only from early June to early August. I.e. if you got the J&J shot in early June, you decreased risk by 15 micromorts/wk with that vaccination but in just two months, the surge increased your risk by like 28 micromort/wk.
I don't think that's a statistical fluke; I think the situation really did get materially worse in the US over that period. That proceeded from choices we made as a society.
This winter, our collective choices still have the potential to create impacts which will rival the efficacy of the vaccines.
But comparing countries of tens of millions of people I think is not dominated by noise.
But perhaps a more pointed comparison is the US peak death rate for J&J vaccine recipients was higher than the lowest unvaccinated death rate. That swing happened only from early June to early August. I.e. if you got the J&J shot in early June, you decreased risk by 15 micromorts/wk with that vaccination but in just two months, the surge increased your risk by like 28 micromort/wk.
I don't think that's a statistical fluke; I think the situation really did get materially worse in the US over that period. That proceeded from choices we made as a society.
This winter, our collective choices still have the potential to create impacts which will rival the efficacy of the vaccines.