No, not really. Instead of walking your points I can summarise my position on this issue as it does not really differ from my position on most other issues.
My starting point is objectivity and as such I dislike narrative. When SARS2 became a thing it was woven into a number of narratives, one of which has now become dominant in many western countries. This narrative revolves around a collectivist technocratic approach to tackling what is deemed to be a severe threat against public health. The technocracy gets to dictate how people are to act, when they are to act, with whom they are allowed to interact and when they have to refrain from interacting with anyone. Dissenters are quickly labelled and attempts are made to publicly shame those who oppose. The tools of the technocracy are deemed to be highly effective and, again, dissenters are labelled and shamed. The problems with this approach are manifold:
- SARS2 is not a severe threat for large swaths of the population - this became clear early on in the pandemic and has been clear ever since.
- liberal democracy and technocracy do not mix, the former depends on dissent and discussion to reach a consensus while the latter can not tolerate dissent. Most western countries have liberal democratic traditions in one form or another, most people like it that way and want to keep these traditions alive.
- the tools of the technocracy are not nearly as effective - and in some cases not effective at all, or worse (e.g. forcing people to shelter in place, not allowing them to go outdoors) - as stated but those who point this out are quickly marked as dissenters, labelled and shunned. The same is done to anyone who suggests alternatives to the officially mandated tools.
- authoritarian powers, once gained, are hard to give up.
Once the epidemics and the pandemic are over - in a year or 2 - an overview of the pros and cons of the different strategies should be made based on real data (i.e. raw verified data) by neutral observers (if such can be found). What I expect that overview to show is that the costs of the more authoritarian measures - strict lockdowns, school closures, severe limits to personal contacts - ended up being higher than the benefits. Those costs can be expressed in lives lost to (substance/physical) abuse, loneliness, estrangement and other social impacts leading to an increase in suicides. They can be expressed in the loss of academic achievement due to school closures leading to a lowering of future prospects for the affected. As tends to be the case these impacts are not equally spread over all classes of society, the lower classes are hit much harder than the middle and higher.
With all these things in mind it should be now be clear that for me the issues are not so much related to whether the vaccines are useful or not or whether masking works or not. If the vaccines are shown to work people will take them without the need for a dictate from the authorities to do so. Even if they are shown to only be marginally effective those in the most vulnerable groups will still take them to lower their personal risk. Locking down society has not been proven to be effective in reducing the spread of transmission [1,2] while it has a marked impact on social well-being as well as economic activity. The Swedish example shows that people voluntarily adjust their behaviour to limit the risk of personal exposure without a need for the authorities to intervene. People make risk assessments every day, some of them rational - people tend to not cross busy motorways since they know they probably won't survive - and other irrational. A policy based on informing people of the true risks (which was hard to do in the beginning of the pandemic but a lot easier a few months in), providing means - informational, material, medical and economical - to lower those risks and a limited number of targeted actions to keep essential services running is compatible with a liberal democratic political tradition and does far less damage to society than an authoritarian regime of lockdowns and forced medical procedures.
The authoritarian approach might fit countries with an authoritarian political tradition, China or - earlier - the Soviet Union being prime examples of such. Western countries tend(ed) to pride themselves on not being 'like China' or 'like the Soviet Union'. I'd like to keep it that way, if I want to live in an authoritarian state there are plenty of such to move to. I did not do so, instead I moved from one liberal democracy to another.
So, if I understand correctly, it seems that your disagreement with current policies is, to a large extent, ideological, rather than practical.
Also, if I read correctly what you write, the main disagreement between you and me is that you seem to conflate:
1. technocracy == authoritarianism;
2. taking public health measures == authoritarianism;
3. informed people will take good decisions.
To which I would counter with different definitions and observations:
1. In my book, technocracy means "letting people who actually understand the issue do something about it", by opposition to "count on people whose main skills are diplomacy and politics do something about a problem they don't understand." We still count on the latter to actually defend our democracy and technocrats (just as police officers, judges or teachers) are part of the means of action of a democracy.
2. In my book, the measures that have been taken were imperfect necessary (or at least seemed necessary at the time) based on existing knowledge about epidemics. They have a cost, largely in terms of personal comfort and mental health, but we're so far from authoritarian regimes that I suspect that people who use the word "authoritarian" to describe them have no clue what it means.
3. Experience with the US seems to suggest that many informed people will... do random things?
First, an aside: did you ever watch that interview with Jordan Peterson by Cathy Newman, better known as the "so what you're saying" interview [1]?
Also, no, your understanding of my - fairly straightforward, straight out of liberal democracy 101 - position is lacking. Technocracy can lead to authoritarianism but it does not need to. Taking public health measures also does not equate authoritarianism - where do you get that from? On the subject of well-informed people taking "good" decisions a whole discussion can be had but one thing is clear: well-informed people make better decisions than uninformed or misinformed people, on aggregate.
Now with regard to your positive attitude towards technocracy I'd suggest that this is probably due to the fact that you, just like most people here, are "well-educated" and employed in a knowledge-driven field where knowledge is a currency/equals power. In this environment is is very easy to fall into the trap of ultracrepidarianism [2], the tendency for people to assume that expertise is a universal currency which retains its value outside of the specific field of expertise. Who better to deal with a health "crisis" than healthcare experts, people who are just as likely to fall for this trap? Who better to deal with any crisis than those experts, they are after all the people who know most about whatever field the crisis might relate to?
The answer here is that those experts are non-experts outside of their fields, just like you and I and everyone else around here - we might strive to become Homo Universalis in the style of Leonardo DaVinci but alas, the knowledge available to humanity will no longer fit in a single man's brain. Putting those experts in charge means they will start making decisions outside of their field of expertise, assuming that everything can be described in terms of their own field of expertise [3]. You might try to counter by saying that of course that is not what would happen, decisions related to the economy will be made by experts on economy, those related to social well-being will be made by experts on sociology and psychology, things which impact national security will be relegated to defence experts, etcetera. That is not how it works as was clearly shown in many countries which followed the narrative by putting the experts in charge.
On the subject of "informed people doing random things" another long discussion can be had, but suffice to say that people have the freedom to act as they will within the bounds of the law, even if those actions are deemed inappropriate or foolhardy by others. These rights are set out in the US constitution and made explicit in the Bill of Rights which states that The powers not delegated to the United States by the Constitution, nor prohibited by it to the States, are reserved to the States respectively, or to the people. The perennial struggle between 'rugged individualism' and 'the greater good' will continue no matter how many words we waste on it so as long as the USA keeps its constitution and bill of rights and related laws in place I'd advise those informed people against doing what I consider to be stupid things (which may not coincide with what you or they consider to be stupid things) but I would not try to force them to refrain from doing said things. If they (plan to) do stupid things which harm others they'll quickly find themselves on the wrong side of some law or other and as such can be refrained from doing those things.
Do you agree with a vaccine mandate using the current crop of SARS2 vaccines? If so, can you explain your reasoning around forcing people to take what still are experimental preparations without a safety track record where the efficacy of the preparations is questionable and the disease they are supposed to protect against is not a significant threat for the majority of those who would be forced to undergo vaccination?
Can you defend the imposition of authoritarian lockdown regimes when the disease-related outcome in regions without such regimes are largely similar, knowing that those authoritarian measures come with a large cost of their own?
The reason for which I attempt to summarize your position is very much because I wish to avoid arguing against something that you're not claiming. So far, it's the only technique I have found to discuss online with people with whom I disagree while learning from the conversation and avoiding turning it into a slugfest. Apparently, I'm failing.
I'm going to thank you for your time and wish you a pleasant day.
As a side-note, I'm well aware of the Dunning-Kruger hypothesis. I've seen it in action all across the board since the beginning of the crisis and, frankly, pretty much all the time for as long as I remember paying attention, technocracy or not.
Having answered your questions I can not help but notice that you did not answer my questions on vaccination mandates and lockdown regimes. It would be interesting to know if you support these and, if so, why.
No, not really. Instead of walking your points I can summarise my position on this issue as it does not really differ from my position on most other issues.
My starting point is objectivity and as such I dislike narrative. When SARS2 became a thing it was woven into a number of narratives, one of which has now become dominant in many western countries. This narrative revolves around a collectivist technocratic approach to tackling what is deemed to be a severe threat against public health. The technocracy gets to dictate how people are to act, when they are to act, with whom they are allowed to interact and when they have to refrain from interacting with anyone. Dissenters are quickly labelled and attempts are made to publicly shame those who oppose. The tools of the technocracy are deemed to be highly effective and, again, dissenters are labelled and shamed. The problems with this approach are manifold:
- SARS2 is not a severe threat for large swaths of the population - this became clear early on in the pandemic and has been clear ever since.
- liberal democracy and technocracy do not mix, the former depends on dissent and discussion to reach a consensus while the latter can not tolerate dissent. Most western countries have liberal democratic traditions in one form or another, most people like it that way and want to keep these traditions alive.
- the tools of the technocracy are not nearly as effective - and in some cases not effective at all, or worse (e.g. forcing people to shelter in place, not allowing them to go outdoors) - as stated but those who point this out are quickly marked as dissenters, labelled and shunned. The same is done to anyone who suggests alternatives to the officially mandated tools.
- authoritarian powers, once gained, are hard to give up.
Once the epidemics and the pandemic are over - in a year or 2 - an overview of the pros and cons of the different strategies should be made based on real data (i.e. raw verified data) by neutral observers (if such can be found). What I expect that overview to show is that the costs of the more authoritarian measures - strict lockdowns, school closures, severe limits to personal contacts - ended up being higher than the benefits. Those costs can be expressed in lives lost to (substance/physical) abuse, loneliness, estrangement and other social impacts leading to an increase in suicides. They can be expressed in the loss of academic achievement due to school closures leading to a lowering of future prospects for the affected. As tends to be the case these impacts are not equally spread over all classes of society, the lower classes are hit much harder than the middle and higher.
With all these things in mind it should be now be clear that for me the issues are not so much related to whether the vaccines are useful or not or whether masking works or not. If the vaccines are shown to work people will take them without the need for a dictate from the authorities to do so. Even if they are shown to only be marginally effective those in the most vulnerable groups will still take them to lower their personal risk. Locking down society has not been proven to be effective in reducing the spread of transmission [1,2] while it has a marked impact on social well-being as well as economic activity. The Swedish example shows that people voluntarily adjust their behaviour to limit the risk of personal exposure without a need for the authorities to intervene. People make risk assessments every day, some of them rational - people tend to not cross busy motorways since they know they probably won't survive - and other irrational. A policy based on informing people of the true risks (which was hard to do in the beginning of the pandemic but a lot easier a few months in), providing means - informational, material, medical and economical - to lower those risks and a limited number of targeted actions to keep essential services running is compatible with a liberal democratic political tradition and does far less damage to society than an authoritarian regime of lockdowns and forced medical procedures.
The authoritarian approach might fit countries with an authoritarian political tradition, China or - earlier - the Soviet Union being prime examples of such. Western countries tend(ed) to pride themselves on not being 'like China' or 'like the Soviet Union'. I'd like to keep it that way, if I want to live in an authoritarian state there are plenty of such to move to. I did not do so, instead I moved from one liberal democracy to another.
[1] https://www.hhs.se/sv/forskning/sse-corona-economic-research...
[2] https://academic.oup.com/cesifo/article/67/3/318/6199605