Remember the spike needs to bind to the ACE receptor which is what vaccines target, so if it escapes vaccines, it probably isn’t going to be as easily infectious. Maybe.
SA has low levels of vaccination, but they've had high infection rates. There should be substantial levels of immunity to earlier variants in the population. It's not directly comparable, but it should be possible to get some idea of how well the new variant escapes existing immunity.
Your answer seems to assume that the distribution of spike proteins which binds to the ACE is very close to the one for which we obtain immunity by getting vaccinated.
Yet we can already see that Delta binds better than the early strains and the efficacy of existing vaccines against it is like 60%, which contradict that. Does it make sense?
The infection rate in South Africa when this variant arose was extremely low.
This variant has not had to compete with Delta at all.
It established itself in a vacuum of infections, and it may all be due to founder effects, with a new wave of infections due to behavior or other changes.
I'm also very skeptical that P681H is suddenly going to flip the script and start displacing P681R.
SA also has low vaccination rates and its not obvious that this variant arose because of selection for immune evasion (even if it did, immune evasion from NAbs is probably inevitable and will happen forever).
Ah, I hadn't grasped your irony. I heard it suggested somewhat seriously recently, which miffed me a bit. Lockdowns were probably the least awful option in early 2020, but as you know it doesn't make them a great idea now.
My understanding is that parent was not joking. It's a great thought experiment though, and let's not forget that humanity did eradicate a number of diseases.
I wholeheartedly agree if worded as "people who can afford to but don't seem to be able to sit quietly in their homes for two weeks". I guess that's what you intended anyway.
(not everyone can afford to, e.g. they need to work for money for food, or they need to provide _actually_ essential public services.)
I’m a bit fed up with coronaviruses tbh.