I don't think React hooks will be outdated in 1-2 years. Between Svelte and Vue I don't see a path for a formidable challenger. You get the complete ecosystem around it. There's tools like Stencil, and I like those tools, but giving people whole-cloth access to make anything, with no 'base' design system, tends to lead to the creation of inaccessible UIs. And it's quite simple to introduce a11y issues. The front end stack isn't moving at the speed it did in the early 2010's, of which I am personally appreciative of.
I agree. I think the next big shift will be a fairly big one, not an incremental step.
Personally, my money is on Phoenix LiveView - the syntax and concepts aren't super familiar, but the benefits of no longer having to build a lot of your logic multiple times and the ease of scaling this platform are extremely attractive.