The points in that post make sense to me, I'm not too worried about the major players breaking away from the app store (although if it's anything like streaming/TV some may try it). I think the more likely scenario is that some smaller App developers break away from the store for one reason or another, and then users are asked to install yet more app stores/use yet more payment providers when it provides no benefit to them, or risk losing their Apps/data.
For all the problems with Apple's rules I do believe some of them at least prevent some of the shenanigans that go on in other platforms and reduce the cognitive overhead of managing software on user devices (which may partly explain why iOS users are happier to spend more money on their devices/apps)
> I think the more likely scenario is that some smaller App developers break away from the store for one reason or another, and then users are asked to install yet more app stores/use yet more payment providers when it provides no benefit to them, or risk losing their Apps/data.
I think that there would be as much friction against smaller developers doing that, as against the big players. Same headache for users of having to set up and deal with multiple memberships and payment methods would still apply. The smaller indie devs would be disinclined to do that for the most part. What will end up happening is that there might be one or two major alternative app stores at most, and probably well-curated by the most dedicated and motivated of volunteers. On Android, that exists with F-Droid, which is a useful case study of how an independent third party App store for hobbyists can arise. These niches will exist for those who choose to pursue them but users will not be “forced” to go to them as they will not need those stores.
Your point about streaming/TV apps make sense, like the major gaming publishers, they both have unique content that might be the most compelling reason for users to pursue them, and the most motivation to get away from the 30% cut.
For all the problems with Apple's rules I do believe some of them at least prevent some of the shenanigans that go on in other platforms and reduce the cognitive overhead of managing software on user devices (which may partly explain why iOS users are happier to spend more money on their devices/apps)