The author underestimates the effects that increased military investment can have.
Russia is already selling a lot of weapons around the world - they are typically not as good as American counterparts (in most fields, at least), but they tend to be cheaper; further investment would see prices fall even further, effectively flooding all markets where the Russians play. A lot of African and Asian countries might well jump at the chance, resulting in profits for Russia and increased worldwide instability. Already the successful Russian intervention in Syria was meant to be a showcase of the latest Russian tech.
Putin's Russia might not be able to afford a 10- or 20-year conflict like the US could, but I fear it can afford more than enough to produce very bad outcomes for the world at large. And I still don't see how they'd fail to take Kyiv, at the very least, which might well be all they want.
Difficult to produce that stuff while the whole world is against you. Hard to make a good profit from weapons when much of their other exports don't go up. Not a winning strategy.
We are discussing what the author of the piece says, i.e. that Russia will invest more in arms manufacturing. This will likely create surplus they can sell even cheaper, hence moving the needle.
Did you even read the article...? We are not talking about a natural evolution of a market, but a change due to various external shocks - which will produce new conditions.
Russia is already selling a lot of weapons around the world - they are typically not as good as American counterparts (in most fields, at least), but they tend to be cheaper; further investment would see prices fall even further, effectively flooding all markets where the Russians play. A lot of African and Asian countries might well jump at the chance, resulting in profits for Russia and increased worldwide instability. Already the successful Russian intervention in Syria was meant to be a showcase of the latest Russian tech.
Putin's Russia might not be able to afford a 10- or 20-year conflict like the US could, but I fear it can afford more than enough to produce very bad outcomes for the world at large. And I still don't see how they'd fail to take Kyiv, at the very least, which might well be all they want.