Hacker Newsnew | past | comments | ask | show | jobs | submitlogin

You forget that these countries are in the EU which has it's own mutual defence clause.


Not really. It has an "assistance" clause which does not say anything about military assistance.

It was left intentionally vague.


The clause says "members must assist with all the means in their power" or similar wording.

Whatever lawyers decide that clause means, I think the odds of outright invasion of an EU member _not_ leading to open european/world war is basically zero


I didn't. EU mutual defense is loosely defined by lawyers. If EU wants to declare war on Russia, they need NATO and most importantly, Americans. I don't want to knock on Western Europe on military, but without Americans' command and control, as well as logistic support, I don't think EU can mount any substantial military troop movements quickly in respond to an invasion.


And that Putin probably won’t try invading anything for a while now.


I am not so sure.

The way Russia put in their lousy equipment and untrained staff (if all the reports are to be believed) then his better troops and weapons are not yet there / ready for other use.


Or... there aren't better troops and weapons?

Hear me out. Russia is corrupt to the core with leadership that's only focused on enriching themselves.

It wouldn't surprise me if their conventional military proved to be way less capable then they're presenting it to be.

Sure, they have enough smart people that are able to design advanced weaponry, but do they have the industrial capacity to actually build? And do they have the capability to maintain it? How about troop training?


They probably don’t. As with almost all modern dictatorships, the military is there to protect the elites from the general populace, and is not fit for much more purpose. Besides Russia doesn’t have to worry about external invaders, because they have their nuclear deterrent. So the state of their military makes perfect sense.

Can’t risk a military coup.


No one knows for sure. Also, if Putin survives this whole Ukraine mess, who's to say he won't try again in 5 years? The point being, the narrative of business is usual is gone. All the countries that are next to or depend on Russia can no longer count on money or appeasement.

Nordic and countries next to Russia have to rethink their strategy. Maybe they decide to wait and see the next strong man from Russia will be and negotiate with them. But PEACE based purely on the words of a mad man is precursor for war.




Guidelines | FAQ | Lists | API | Security | Legal | Apply to YC | Contact

Search: