Its true that russia will find it _very_ difficult to sustain this level of effort for any level of time. Its logistic capacity has been pushed way beyond efficiency.
but with that in mind, whos going to push putin out of ukraine? yes the people can pick off soldiers for the next few years, but thats not peace.
It is currently within Putin's grasp to freeze the conflict as it is now, with eastern ukraine in his possession.
I suspect his options are:
1) stage a dirty bomb, blame it on ukraine, order a general mobilisation.
2) freeze the conflict now, hold on to the "gains"
3) Assainate Zelenskyy
4) Stage some other stupid humanitarian horror(bombing of russian hospital/orphanage/school) general mobilisation
As the article says, assassinating Zelenskyy would make things worse, because Russia will no longer have anybody with similar authority to negotiate on Ukraine's behalf.
> 1) stage a dirty bomb, blame it on ukraine, order a general mobilisation.
Equivalent to #5.
> 2) freeze the conflict now, hold on to the "gains"
This would be the smartest move. But it would also signal that Russia admits defeat, which may work against Putin. After all, his goal is to hold on to power.
> 3) Assainate Zelenskyy
Putin is certainly trying. It may be media exaggeration, but supposedly he's survived three attempts.
If it happens, though, I don't think it will tip the scale -- Ukraine won because there are competent people in charge, and because Zelenskyy didn't flee. Zelenskyy dying would still leave competent people in charge.
> 4) Stage some other stupid humanitarian horror(bombing of russian hospital/orphanage/school) general mobilisation
Equivalent to #5.
> 5) carry on, regardless.
It's impossible for Russia to make progress, because they have no way of carrying fuel, ammunition, food, and other supplies to the front lines. Any time they try to extend their lines into Ukraine, they're cut short, because five days later the front line runs out of fuel. And they can't guard their supply lines because they never achieved air superiority.
Russia should retreat to the breakaway provinces and try to hold those and to ethnic cleansing to solidify demographics in their favor. kill zelensky just out of spite though it doesn't affect outcome much. try to hang onto the port they captured and the nuke plant maybe.
by should I dont according to moral laws but just to get something militarily out of the whole evil mess.
Thanks for this, I certainly enjoyed your analysis.
The only quibble I have is that option 1 would allow Russia's allies cover to provide help (assuming they they choose to) even if that fails, it would provide a chance to get the russian population on side.
Its true that russia will find it _very_ difficult to sustain this level of effort for any level of time. Its logistic capacity has been pushed way beyond efficiency.
but with that in mind, whos going to push putin out of ukraine? yes the people can pick off soldiers for the next few years, but thats not peace.
It is currently within Putin's grasp to freeze the conflict as it is now, with eastern ukraine in his possession.
I suspect his options are:
1) stage a dirty bomb, blame it on ukraine, order a general mobilisation.
2) freeze the conflict now, hold on to the "gains"
3) Assainate Zelenskyy
4) Stage some other stupid humanitarian horror(bombing of russian hospital/orphanage/school) general mobilisation
5) carry on, regardless.