"The U.S. Federal Communications Commission (FCC) has granted SpaceX permission to fly 12,000 Starlink satellites" [1]
"As of early January 2022, SpaceX had launched more than 1,900 Starlink satellites overall."[ibid]
They've launched only 15% of the satellites that they are authorized to launch and they are launching more at a pretty rapid pace. I doubt they are too worried about meeting their bandwidth requirements.
The more subscribers they add, the less bandwidth is available for each. Adding more birds does not increase overall bandwidth, it just decreases the number of subscribers using each bird. But only a tiny fraction of birds are in range of any subscribers, at any time, so all the subscribers are piled onto those few, and most of them on even fewer.
To be a viable business, able to pay for and launch new birds at the rate they age out and burn up, they need to grow the number of subscribers way, way faster than they can add birds, until bandwidth available per subscriber gets very low.
Money available to pay for buying and launching birds is only a fraction of income, because they also need to pay for trunk bandwidth, add hub stations, and subsidize terminals, which cost way more than the entry price. Trunk bandwidth cost increases with subscriber count.
Most potential subscribers who could afford the service have better terrestrial service already. So it is far from clear, even if they could supply the bandwidth for as many subscribers as they will need, that they can get that many. They could get more by cutting prices, but then take in too little to keep their constellation filled out.
Government subsidies could paper over the difference, but most subscribers will be in countries other than the few writing checks.
> The more subscribers they add, the less bandwidth is available for each. Adding more birds does not increase overall bandwidth, it just decreases the number of subscribers using each bird. But only a small fraction of birds are in range of any subscribers, at any time, so all the subscribers are piled onto those few.
"SpaceX's initial application to the Federal Communications Commission stated that each Starlink satellite would have the capacity for 17 to 23 Gbps" [1]
a) More satellites means fewer subscribers on each satellite to share the 17-23Gbps bandwidth per satellite. If (when) they get the satellite-to-satellite communications going, that will offload a lot of relay traffic from the satellite-earth links freeing up that bandwidth to be used by subscribers as well.
b) StarLink is already limiting subscriptions based on service area and satellite coverage. When The Man comes measuring, they should be OK.
At issue is whether it is viable without subsidy from non-subscribing taxpayers. Betting not. Betting he is relying on subscribers having enough political muscle to make that happen indefinitely.
Musk has said that the current version of Satellite V1 is "financially weak", that V2 is necessary to achieve their bandwidth goals.
> The consequences for SpaceX if we can not get enough reliable Raptors made is that we then can’t fly Starship, which means we then can’t fly Starlink Satellite V2 (Falcon has neither the volume nor the mass to orbit needed for satellite V2). Satellite V1, by itself, is financially weak, while V2 is strong.
> In addition, we are spooling up terminal production to several million units per year, which will consume massive capital, assuming that satellite V2 will be on orbit to handle the bandwidth demand. These terminals will be useless otherwise.
In other words, he agrees with my assessment. I conclude that he is counting on those subsidies continuing indefinitely. He might strong-arm other governments to pony up so their politically better-served citizens or subjects can use it, at the expense of non-subscribers.
"As of early January 2022, SpaceX had launched more than 1,900 Starlink satellites overall."[ibid]
They've launched only 15% of the satellites that they are authorized to launch and they are launching more at a pretty rapid pace. I doubt they are too worried about meeting their bandwidth requirements.
[1] https://www.space.com/spacex-starlink-satellites.html