I am often thinking in first and second derivatives in real life as well. Even if I can't put real numbers on them you can often tell if they're at least "positive" or "negative". Most people think in the zero'th derivative, or to put it less math-y, that tomorrow will be the same as today, indefinitely. If you directly ask them "Do you think that is the case?", of course they will say "No", and in some sense it'll even be true they believe that. But I mean, look at their actions, look at their reactions to possible futures when they try to think about them, look at what contingencies they plan for and how hard they commit to them, and by their actions you can tell they are zero-derivative thinkers at heart. While this is hardly a recipe to predict the future with total certainty, it is at least a way of grappling with it more effectively than zero-derivative thinking.
I suppose super geniuses beyond my level could operate in third derivatives and beyond, though I think the utility starts to diminish quickly after the second. (I think it starts getting swamped by your uncertainty.)
