ABI/API stability != behavioral stability, though. I can give you a dependency with exactly the same interface, that will still break your software. It's not a solution (even if it helps with one piece of the puzzle)
The only complete solution would be static analysis (read: type systems) that can guarantee everything about some code's contract/behavior relative to the caller. Short of that, it's just going to continue being a bunch of manual half-solutions like API checks, existing type-level checks, manual changelog reading, manual upgrades, testing, etc.
I think a mindset that could work is to accept software as done. This is hard but for foundational stuff it could work well. Only fix bugs in such software. Try to set a scope what the software should do, build it, then do maintenance on it. Supersede it entirely to add new functionality.
Adding features to existing software is much cheaper than writing entirely new software (not to mention the cost to switch!) At the same time, new features in low level software can unlock substantial value. Say a new API that speeds up your app by 1% or cuts down on further development time by a small fraction.
The only complete solution would be static analysis (read: type systems) that can guarantee everything about some code's contract/behavior relative to the caller. Short of that, it's just going to continue being a bunch of manual half-solutions like API checks, existing type-level checks, manual changelog reading, manual upgrades, testing, etc.