What a confusing read. I largely can't discern the sarcasm from impassioned outrage. Nor am I certain that "any decrease in population is catastrophic" is the message that I was meant to receive, but that is what I got out of it. I've heard this argument before and I have never been able to piece together the logic. My best guess is that it's mainly a difference in perspective, and somebody's catastrophic is to me simply worse than what we have now.
Yes, there will be a time when things are worse. Rise and decline is a pattern in pretty much every facet of every trend that I can think of. Nothing goes up forever. Just because Earth's population flatlines at 10m, doesn't mean humanity is heading straight for extinction. I mean, it's possible. But far more likely is that at some point, for some reason, things turn back around and the population starts growing again. In the meantime, overpopulation and underpopulation both come with their own problems, and I'm not sure which is worse. We're only ~300 years into the industrial revolution after all. Maybe it's time for a little pullback. That is healthy for the real long-haul.
Sure, none of us actually wants to be a part of the hard times. We would rather the great-great-great-grandchildren that we've never met and never will be the ones to bear that burden. But somebody's going to have to deal with it eventually, and yes, it could be you (and me). Meanwhile, having a smaller number of people on the planet (while creating some problems that we had forgotten about) will surely also make some things easier. If literally no one wanted to have kids anymore, it might be a real problem. This is just another urban perspective; I could believe that no one in a city wants to have kids anymore. At least some of us forest dwellers are still breeding like rabbits.
> Just because Earth's population flatlines at 10m, doesn't mean humanity is heading straight for extinction
By the time the population flatlines (at 10B) it will be with a pretty old population already. Many countries have a birth rate < 1.3 and many more are headed that way. That means after every 30 years or so, the number of babies born every year will decrease by 35%. Every 30 years. This is already very noticeable in e.g. South Korea, which last year had a birthrate of 0.8 I believe, where schools are now closing in droves.
And the problem is, none of the mechanisms that are causing birthrates to plummet are showing any signs of slowing down or reversing. The countries with higher birthrates right now are just further back on the curve, they'll be where we are soon enough. It might be that the reasons for decreasing birthrates are things we're not willing to give up, like improved quality of life of singles, increased education and equality between the sexes. We'll see if natural selection will act quickly enough to produce people with a stronger instinct for having kids, but then the question is why hasn't this already happened, as birth rates have been declining for the past century while living standards have increased immensely. As the number of people choosing to have zero kids rather than just fewer increase, perhaps this will put the pressure on in a way it hasn't yet.
Yes, there will be a time when things are worse. Rise and decline is a pattern in pretty much every facet of every trend that I can think of. Nothing goes up forever. Just because Earth's population flatlines at 10m, doesn't mean humanity is heading straight for extinction. I mean, it's possible. But far more likely is that at some point, for some reason, things turn back around and the population starts growing again. In the meantime, overpopulation and underpopulation both come with their own problems, and I'm not sure which is worse. We're only ~300 years into the industrial revolution after all. Maybe it's time for a little pullback. That is healthy for the real long-haul.
Sure, none of us actually wants to be a part of the hard times. We would rather the great-great-great-grandchildren that we've never met and never will be the ones to bear that burden. But somebody's going to have to deal with it eventually, and yes, it could be you (and me). Meanwhile, having a smaller number of people on the planet (while creating some problems that we had forgotten about) will surely also make some things easier. If literally no one wanted to have kids anymore, it might be a real problem. This is just another urban perspective; I could believe that no one in a city wants to have kids anymore. At least some of us forest dwellers are still breeding like rabbits.