I don't think that's a fair bar. There are arguments for consciousness in non-human animals that don't depend on a full explanation of consciousness in humans.
But that also doesn't imply we should suspect any particular AI of being conscious just because AI in general could be conscious in principle. We don't expect worms to be conscious just because animals can be.
I wasn't clear. I'm talking about consciousness in general, humans, animals, octopi... I keep reading but haven't found an explanation that satisfies me. Ray Kurzweil has some interesting things to say about computers and consciousness in his "The Age of Spiritual Machines". I was skeptical about a lot of what he wrote when I read it many years ago.
Now I'm not sure it matters. If people imbue their devices with intelligence and emotions then that's what they perceive. I've since learned about Tulpas. Some people have imaginary friends that seem very real to them. People will likely move their Tulpas out of their minds and into their AI's.
If Tulpas are a (very mild and benign) form of split personality (see also : writer's characters manifesting a kind of will of their own), then "moving them out" might be just an illusion... at least until/if much more advanced technology comes along. (It's then pretty much the same question as the possibility of "mind uploading".)
But that also doesn't imply we should suspect any particular AI of being conscious just because AI in general could be conscious in principle. We don't expect worms to be conscious just because animals can be.