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It's hard to predict some things now, but the vast majority of things are as easy to predict as they've ever been, or we wouldn't be reasonably sure that when we took a step on the sidewalk that our feet would touch the ground, or that when we opened a door leading in to a house there'd be a house on the other side, or that cars, airplanes, and other machines mostly work as designed, that food is nutritious and satiates hunger, etc, etc, etc..

Prediction for the overwhelming majority of things is still reasonably easy, or we wouldn't be able to survive.

We're very, very far from a singularity if it really means that "our predictions about our future becomes close to zero".



>or we wouldn't be able to survive.

If you want to keep surviving you have to be 100% correct in your ability to predict the correct choice. Now the thing is the vast majority of predictions you have to make about anything are not necessarily life or death and/or rapidly changing. LIke you said, cars are still cars, and food is still food.

The problem is the change can be massively abrupt. Watching the use of drones in Ukraine is seemingly a decent example of this. Small cheap drones are being used in mass as surveillance platforms, for artillery targeting, and even for direct enemy bombing. They cost of defending against them seems to be far higher than the cost of using them to attack.

Now this isn't exactly unpredictable in itself. Where is gets more questionable about predictions, is what is it going to look like when AI is given direct control of swarms of these things rather than individuals with an xbox controller? Suddenly decades of battle field planning is out the window and there is a massive shakeup in fighting capabilities.




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