Russia. Turns everything from Zaporizhzhia to the Black Sea into a boggy-ass mess of mud (draining the reservoir will leave mud, flooding the downstream will leave mud). Filling the reservoir before blowing it like they did only maximizes the amount of mud left. Lets Russia shift more forces north.
It has already caused loud cry from EU politicans, before we even know the reason.
President of the European Council: "The destruction of civilian infrastructure clearly qualifies as a war crime - and we will hold Russia and its proxies accountable."
It blocks or slows only couple weeks at max. Not really a big gain.
The river has 6 dams. Ukraine can control the upstream flow.
It is estimated than in three days, the highest point in downstream is reached and then it will get lower. In the war which has lasted more than year, the benefit is meaningless.
On the other hand, the flow flushes all the Russian defenses on the other side. And the source of drinkable water in Crimean is ruined.
The Ukrainian president said earlier the Russian army mined the dam, to prevent the bridge being used by Ukrainian military. Perhaps it detonated, either by accident, as a reaction to an actual Ukranian attack over the bridge, or simply because of a very nervous Russian soldier.
On the plus side, this should mean the damage should not be too bad, as Ukraine had time to prepare.
None of the parties have supporting evidence (not for mines as well).
Both parties are in information warfare, and everything is used for their own benefits. Everything they say, should be taken with a grain of salt.
Immediately, when the dam was exploded, Zelensky said that now the world must react, and drive Russians from Ukraine, from all the territory and corners they have taken.
The problem is, that we don't have access to up-to-date Russian military records.
Is he really Russian soldier?
If he is, can we guarantee that the video is not digitally created (deep fake)?
If we guarantee the both, what is the motivation for Russian soldier to say it and what situation led to this video?
Do we know, that this soldier was indeed responsible to be close to the dam?
It is so difficult to say what is true these days.
> The problem is, that we don't have access to up-to-date Russian military records. Is he really Russian soldier? If he is, can we guarantee that the video is not digitally created (deep fake)? If we guarantee the both, what is the motivation for Russian soldier to say it and what situation led to this video? Do we know, that this soldier was indeed responsible to be close to the dam?
You got evidence and now you're trying to discredit that evidence.
> It is so difficult to say what is true these days.
Indeed it is, I have a feeling you really don't care much about the truth are just here to try and muddy the waters.
> You got evidence and now you're trying to discredit that evidence.
I am trying to say that our definitions of evidence are not the same anymore.
It is just a video online. Without any other supporting factors, it stays like that. Evidence requires connection to the context, and we can't verify that.
> Indeed it is, I have a feeling you really don't care much about the truth are just here to try and muddy the waters.
I care about the truth. But I also don't like that people can't see over their own biases. (e.g. not considering that someone else than Russia could do something for their own benefit)
> I am trying to say that our definitions of evidence are not the same anymore.
It is just a video online. Without any other supporting factors, it stays like that. Evidence requires connection to the context, and we can't verify that.
It's literally video evidence of the Russians pretty much admitting it and you're doing your best to try say theres no way to know its real.
> I care about the truth. But I also don't like that people can't see over their own biases. (e.g. not considering that someone else than Russia could do something for their own benefit)
I care about the truth as well, but it's worth knowing that people who 'question' everything generally have an ulterior motive and don't really care about the truth. Whats the points in arguing if all the evidence is deep faked?.
Theres no proof anything you said is true, tonnes of proof the Russians blew up the damn.
Here's another video of them saying they want to blow the dam, but I'm sure you'll come up with some reason why this video could be fake too.
It's a pretty big psychological warfare advantage for the Russian though to impress their population and keep them in the dark about what is really going on in Ukraine. It seems a bit coincidental considering the major Ukrainian offensive will likely start with the next couple of weeks.
Current chatter that I'm seeing indicates that the local RF commander got scared and blew the dam. It may not have been commanded by higher ups. So, the only benefactor seems to have been the local RF, and even then only until someone can got over there to ream him.
How good is this info? Probably not the best. But it fits fine enough with how poorly commanded RF has been throughout this war.
It seems to be the Muscovites giving up on folding Ukraine into their empire, and going for scorched earth instead before withdrawal. Here's hoping Belgorod and Kursk can be liberated soon.
Does it disturb Ukraine or Russian military the most? Who will achieve military goals because of this?
Does it help Ukraine in information warfare? (does it increase West participation to war)