The GGP is neither a credible source (it's an unsupported statement by an internet rando) nor speculation that withstands much scrutiny (IIRC, circa 2014, Ukraine had blocked the channel that supplies water to Crimea, and that didn't cause the Russians to abandon it then, and I don't see why now would be any different).
There's a lot of wishful thinking and propaganda swirling around this conflict, and strong claims need strong evidence.
I'd say any claim needs evidence (with some extreme exceptions), and in fact it's only the evidence that's worth reading, not the claim.
Rando claims have zero value by themselves - there is an infinite supply that say anything and everything. That's why science, law, etc. require evidence.
There's a lot of wishful thinking and propaganda swirling around this conflict, and strong claims need strong evidence.