According to your theory, would you also explain Bitcoin's future as the halving event is approaching. Everybody knows the halving will happen in around april next year. Since everybody knows (everybody will notice the same historical pattern), do you think it will be reversed ?
In any liquid enough market one should assume significant known future events are priced in and the current price reflects them already. Are bitcoin markets 'liquid enough'? I don't know. And even when something is priced in, you can still expect prices to change a bit after events, because going from X% likelihood of happening to has happened is a difference.
Generally speaking though, the price of bitcoin will probably change much less because of the halving than someone might expect.
People have been talking about Bitcoin as an inflation hedge for a long time, despite the fact that Bitcoin has been printing money at a significant rate. Bitcoin would have been a lot lower valued if it didn't already have the scheduled halvings built into its price.
