>>They have already proved time and time again to be able to make gigantic leaps, some of those, completely on their own in the sector.
Yes, we shall see. An awful lot of those giant leaps were extremely dependent on technology that was either systematically forced to hand over from democratic countries, or outright stolen by espionage (see their fighter jet vs F35, and some sub technologies).
Have the Chinese managed to reach critical mass of knowledge to continue to advance? Time will tell. But, if Russia is an indicator, even leadership in some areas will slow, stagnate, then become dependent on outside sources [0]. Notice also that Russia is dependent on outside sources even for CNC machines, in which it used to lead, with China's exports increasing 10X after Ukraine invasion [1].
> Yes, we shall see. An awful lot of those giant leaps were extremely dependent on technology that was either systematically forced to hand over from democratic countries, or outright stolen by espionage (see their fighter jet vs F35, and some sub technologies).
Here we go again. A little bit of reading here[0] and here[1].
Nonsense. No one denies your list of pages of Chinese inventions from prehistoric, ancient and imperial periods. No one is saying that the Chinese are some kind of inferior race or incapable of invention.
The present question is what can their society do NOW? Especially considering 1) Mao murdered & starved millions, w/strong emphasis on killing of "elites" and "educated" people in the "Great Leap Forward", which impairs their technological ability 2) China suffer a lot from brain drain to the west, and 3) they are an authoritarian society which has some inherent advantages (e.g., they can put a massive budget on Project X within days, and they can provide consistent funding over decades, vs the constant sea-saw we get in congress so NASA, NSF, etc. don't know their budget from one year to the next) and many disadvantages inherent in authoritarianism.
With those factors, and the current state of their economy, can they go it alone and maintain their aggressive expansionist policies?
Ok. You went from industrial espionage to authoritarianism, killing, society, etc.
I was purely answering to your issue with Chinese industrial espionage. You only mentioned their inventions and simply ignored the other link which shows Chinese are no different than others in terms of industrial espionage and stealing.
No different? Indeed, other societies have used industrial espionage and stealing in the past. But the Chinese have refined, funded, systematized, and integrated it into their development far more extensively than any other society, even the Russians, whose entire approach to silicon microchip development was to steal it and build a 'factory town' to develop based on the theft [0]; didn't work out so well.
One could say that the Chinese are world-champion innovators in the area of industrial espionage, both in the effort they put into it and the results.
The question is: now that this source of knowledge is being restricted, have they reached a point where they can 'reach escape velocity' mostly on their own?
I think it is an open question. I hope not, because that will mean effectively another 'end of history'[1], except with authoritarian states dominating.
Yes, we shall see. An awful lot of those giant leaps were extremely dependent on technology that was either systematically forced to hand over from democratic countries, or outright stolen by espionage (see their fighter jet vs F35, and some sub technologies).
Have the Chinese managed to reach critical mass of knowledge to continue to advance? Time will tell. But, if Russia is an indicator, even leadership in some areas will slow, stagnate, then become dependent on outside sources [0]. Notice also that Russia is dependent on outside sources even for CNC machines, in which it used to lead, with China's exports increasing 10X after Ukraine invasion [1].
[0] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-08/russian-w...
[1] https://www.voiceofeurope.com/chinas-advanced-machine-tool-e...