At the risk of this comment aging poorly, I am not convinced there is a magic GPT-5 around the corner, waiting to wallop anybody. I have a suspicion that we’re into diminishing returns with model scaling. All of the recent flagship releases (Gemini Ultra, Claude Opus, GPT-4 updates) have only advanced the frontier a little. Could OpenAI train something another 1-2 orders of magnitude bigger? Perhaps, but then it wouldn’t be economical to deploy it.
Sora is a thing. It literally walloped everything else in the field to the point the second closest video generation model looked like a broken nonfunctional mess compared to it.
GPT5 might not be the thing we are all assuming it would be. It might not just be a chatbot but an actual AI that can "see" and "talk". By that point, I don't care if performance wise it isn't a big improvement over GPT4 (though it should as we know these models improve significantly when trained with another modal of data, e.g. text+image was much better than text only)
Not ahead of Anthropic. Anthropic is trading blows with the best GPT-4 models these days.
For the open weight/source community I'd put it at 3-6 months behind and catching up. Llama 3 405B might catch the community up unless OpenAI has another LLM up their sleeve that makes a significant jump forward, but we haven't seen evidence of that yet.
I wonder if that was a case of being literal as in, technically speaking gpt-5 isn’t being _trained_, while omitting that they are working on collecting and preparing the data.
They have recently confirmed that they were working on GPT5, without confirming or denying that they were training it.
I guess it isn't unthinkable that GPT5 is more than a year out given the gap between GPT3 and GPT4 was 3 years. At the same time, the rumourmongers at businessinsider said their sources are expecting a Summer release, which seems plausible. Nobody really knows when it will release besides Sam Altman though.
To me, it looks like OpenAI is ahead of the competition by 12-18 months, which isn't nothing but the competition is certainly nipping at their heels.