Only if you're a frequentist. A Bayesian would see evidence that studies in general fail to replicate, and thus have a better prior for famous ones than 50:50.
As an aside, such lines of argument regarding credence are not in any way incompatible with frequentism. Few frequentists deny the correctness of Bayes’ theorem.
Only if you're a frequentist. A Bayesian would see evidence that studies in general fail to replicate, and thus have a better prior for famous ones than 50:50.