Level headed take. There’s no secrets to AGI that Altman/Musk/etc know that you or I don’t. The cutting edge research is out of the bag and in the open. They see AGI as an inevitable result of funding continued research in the space. There is most certainly some hubris there as well that they think they are uniquely positioned to be the one to bring it across the line.
Either way, it’s all speculation about the future. I think if we’re being truly honest and objective, transformer models are interesting and occasionally useful, but they are still a very far cry from AGI.
I also think AGI will become marketing term. We’re going to see it lose any meaning as the capitalists try to upsell us and convince us “mission accomplished, we now have the world’s first AGI”, at the nearest convenient moment, if it helps them juice short term profits.
Not unique to capitalism, cf. 20th Century fascist states, communist states, totalitarian states in general have all upsold nonsense for short-term benefits. Capitalism tends to have fewer direct murderous/genocidal side effects and the emperor is told he is naked more quickly, directly and effectively.
Either way, it’s all speculation about the future. I think if we’re being truly honest and objective, transformer models are interesting and occasionally useful, but they are still a very far cry from AGI.
I also think AGI will become marketing term. We’re going to see it lose any meaning as the capitalists try to upsell us and convince us “mission accomplished, we now have the world’s first AGI”, at the nearest convenient moment, if it helps them juice short term profits.