> why is NVDA still down 15% premarket?

Presumably because backorders will go down, production volume and revenue won't grow as fast, Nvidia will be forced to decrease their margins due to lower demand etc. etc.

Selling everything you make is an extremely low bar relative to Nvidia's current valuation because it assumes that Nvidia will be able to grow at a very fast pace AND maintain obscene margins for the next e.g. ~5 years AND will face very limited competition.

That's literally what I wrote in my post, which the parent disagreed with. You could disagree with the part that it is because inference is now cheaper - but again I'd argue that's just a different way of saying there's no moat.

People owned NVDA because they believed that huge NVDA hardware purchases was the ONLY way to get a AI replacement for a Mid Level software engineer or similar functionality.

That's basically what I wrote: "it simply means that if DeepSeek is legit, you need much less NV hardware to run the same amount of inference as before."

So I still don't understand what it is that you are so strongly disagreeing with, and I also don't understand how having owned NVidia stock somehow lends credence to your argument.

We are in agreement that this won't threaten NVidia's immediate bottom line, they'll still sell everything they build, because demand will likely rise to the supply cap even with lower compute requirements. There are probably a multitude of reasons why the very large number of people who own NVidia stock have decided to de-lever on the news, and a lot of it is simple uneducated herding.

But we are fundamentally dealing with a power law here - the forward value expectations for NVidia have exponential growth baked in to the hilt, combined with some good old fashioned tulip mania, and when that exponential growth becomes just slightly less exponential, that results in fairly significant price oscillations today - even though the basic value proposition is still there. This was the gist of my comment - you disagree with this?

Up until recently there was a belief by some investors that OpenAI was going to "cure cancer" or something as big as that. They assumed that the money flowing into OpenAI would 10x, under the assumption that no one else could catch up with them after that event and a lot of that would flow to NVDA.

Now is looks like that 10x of flow of money into OpenAI will no longer exist. There will be competition and compodiditzation, which causes the value of the tokens to drop way more than 40x.