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Yeah, I was wondering at what point Putin decides to roll the dice and put that to the test by rolling into Estonia, Lithuania or Latvia. He must be feeling his chances are pretty good right now.


Not a realistic risk, if only because I don't think they can credibly man a second front of any length at this point.


yeah NATO got irrelevant and Putin certainly now wishes he would not have attacked Ukraine. Rolling into these 3 mini countries with his entire army from 2022 would have been a much easier task


In 2022 the US would have actually showed up for Article 5.


I'm not sure that would go very well for Putin just now. The Russians are already supplying their troops with donkeys as they've run low on vehicles just fighting Ukraine. (https://metro.co.uk/2025/02/07/putin-resorts-using-donkeys-f...)

Even if the US did nothing, rolling into NATO lands would put them up against the UK, Germany, France. Poland et al as well as Ukraine.

The worry is more that a ceasefire is called. Russia rearms and succeeds in taking over Ukraine and then a combined Ukraine and Russia attacks Europe with President Vance supporting Putin.


I hate being that guy sometimes but US Marines use donkeys.

https://www.marines.mil/News/News-Display/Article/500002/mar...


Wehrmacht was mostly supplied by horses.


Is that dumb? These transport animals basically make themselves. Self-replicating, way cheaper than robots, easy to replace when they break down. Don't need sophisticated software, etc. Just some training and sensory deprivation.

I wish humans would not involve other species in their sadistic ways of killing and maiming each other, though. Donkeys, horses, ... all benefited from war mechanization. Dogs not so much so far. Dutch happily train dogs that are then sold to allies to be used to attack, threaten, maim, shit and piss on, sodomize, and kill defenseless people. Bizarre.


It isn't dumb so much as desperate. Their preference is to supply troops with trucks, but they have lost a huge number of trucks and use many of those remaining as troop transports on the front line which also speaks of desperation.


Russia is in war economy now, you definitely shouldn't underestimate them.

Especially if the US lifts their sanctions against Russia.


I don't think that we're this far gone yet, but is there a chance the US sides with Putin in this case? I think it would be risky, and I don't _think_ Trump's base would go for it, but it does feel like the long term goal is to try to sanitize the idea of a shift in the geopolitical order to ally America with Russia instead of with Europe.


trump and the republicans must really be stupid to trade NATO for russia, while leaving an opening for china to side with europe. If US ditches europe, india/SK/JP and the rest of asia will soon reciprocate.

All this so that US sides with a bankrupt cleptocracy and dictatorship. 1000iq move, I guess.


Europe is not allowed to have its own foreign policy, let alone "side with China." All of those US military bases are there for a reason.


…for now. With the US acting in concert with Russia against Europe’s interest, it’s time for Europe to reconsider whether those bases should stay.


Europe has no say in the matter, short of France using its nukes.


Unless Trump wants to start WW3 the US won't be able to do anything, and even if he did start WW3, Europe would be able to destroy those bases.

The whole point of them was to give the US influence while improving US security. Given Europe can't trust Trump will come to their aid, they won't give the US as much influence over Europe.



Have you ever wondered why the US is able to spend so much on its military? Ever wondered why the US keeps on printing the dollar that's not backed by any gold reserve and other nations still give you real things such as food, resources, goods in exchange for it?

Here's a hint! It's your military. To put it bluntly, European nations and other US allies pretend the dollar has actual value and the US in turn guarantees security and backs the world order based on the rule of law.

Looks like the US is looking to pull out of its end of the deal. That's fair enough, being the world's policeman is sure a heavy burden to carry. I just don't see many people recognizing the implications for the US economy.


No argument from me. I'm not happy that Europe is in this position, I just wish that Europeans were aware of it.


"Is not allowed", lol.


trump's base just goes for whatever he says now - perhaps in 2016/2017 they wouldn't, but it is a full on cult now


Maybe this passes as insightful in some circles but it's completely untrue when you consider how much of his base is currently fuming about weak Epstein annoucement and Israel more generally.


> it's completely untrue when you consider how much of his base is currently fuming about weak Epstein annoucement and Israel more generally

Yeah, but they're not going to do anything about it.


I am trying to express in good faith, I have found the Left to be generally less effective in dealing with grassroots criticism (it's seen as too populist). Trump will flip on an issue due to pressure from the frog guys. The Left are more dogmatic from top intellectuals, don't really listen to the base. Huge issue in the last elxn. Fixable though imo.


Not if he puts boots on the ground. Having a relative die in a foreign war focuses people’s attention real fast. They may blame Biden somehow but


Nah, they'd say it was god's will or some nonsense and pretend it's all right. A minority might even be completely fine with losses as long as their god emperor wins in the end and owns the libs.


Gosh could there be some kind of connection between Biden and the conflict in Ukraine?


Yes, he did everything he could to prevent it - being mocked mercilessly by the rightwing for suggesting Putin might do what he eventually did.

Biden did not do enough to kick Russia out, though. He should have given Ukraine everything they wanted, including a no-fly zone (and ideally Warthog support when Russia was stuck in the mud).


Seems too soon, and both Trump and Putin know that.

But in a few months, when Trump’s base and the Republican Party have turned completely pro-Putin and anti-Europe…


IMHO, they are already there. There's no spine in the Republican party to prevent bowing down to Putin, they have always been anti-Europe, and Putin is a big daddy that they actively court when they idolize Hungary's dictator and hold CPAC meetings and try to emulate Orban.


I think in this era of misinformation Trump+Elon can convince their falolowers that is the greatest idea to help Putin, and that Putin is the second greatest leader in the world history after Trump... you can still see USAians claiming USA paid more then Europe even if the lie was exposed days ago


Do you have any evidence of this "Lebensraum" Putin seeks?


Listen to their state media


RT or TASS URL would improve this argument.



Look at the high level of Russian immigration into occupied Crimea.


Literally the same country


Only if you acknowledge illegal annexations.


It's not about Lebensraum in this case. It's restoring the glory of the USSR. And Putin has been clear on that.


"Glory", so not specifics around hypothetical land Putin aka Hitler 2.0 imagines he wants. There's no evidence for him saying anything besides … what he's literally says. This fantasy conjecture is weakening the international position on Ukraine, especially with such easy access to Russian translation tools where we can just expose this secret conspiracy of yours. He literally only talks about Ukraine, you can look into this yourself.

Or perhaps you mean "glory" in the sense of some kind of national pride and confidence in culture and nationality? I am not sure arguments against any nation seeking a sense of themselves are particularly compelling…


Just because the US changing its mind about Russia changes NATO's dynamic as a whole does not mean that the Baltic states are immediately in danger. Poland and Finland are both nearby NATO countries that have experienced Russia's thumb directly with their own military industrial base or are developing one that would absolutely step in if need be.

Reminder that Finland is really close to St. Petersburg, the 2nd largest city in Russia with some pretty big cultural and military importance. Putin's done some fantastically stupid stuff in regard to the 2022 Ukraine war, namely resuming it, but he's probably not that dumb.




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