> This should be very easy to answer, but no one ever does.

I don't think this is very easy to answer. The fact that people think it should be very easy to answer this, shows how naive they are, because the reason why country x think country y is a threat could include a lot of information and context that is not available to an external observer.

I think it’s true that you don’t have a lot of information on the subject.

The rest of the world has no problem observing and analyzing geopolitical interests.

“The corridors of power are unknowable” isn’t an interesting or useful take.

It might not be interesting, but it is true.